Aluminium Market Snapshot

Aluminium futures traded on the CME closed at $3,095.25 USD per ton on 15 January 2026, positioned near the 52‑week high of $3,160.75 and well above the 52‑week low of $2,155 set in April 2025. The recent upward momentum has attracted the attention of major research houses and corporate actors alike, prompting a reevaluation of both short‑term price targets and strategic investment plans.

Citi Raises Short‑Term Price Target

In a research note released on 15 January, Citi updated its 0‑3 month aluminium price target to $3,400 USD per ton. The brokerage cited a combination of macro‑economic catalysts and fundamental strength within the non‑ferrous metals sector. Citi’s analysis highlighted:

  • Structural upward trend in aluminium prices, suggesting continued capital inflows.
  • Policy‑driven demand support, especially from green‑energy and electric‑vehicle (EV) sectors.
  • Strong short‑term momentum, which underpins the bullish outlook for the near term.

The revised target represents a notable shift from previous forecasts and underscores a growing consensus that aluminium prices will sustain their rise beyond the current CME close.

Corporate Movements in the Aluminium Value Chain

Kaiser Aluminum

Wells Fargo reaffirmed an Equal Weight rating on Kaiser Aluminum (NASDAQ: KALU), raising its price objective to $120.00 from $108.00. The move comes amid a series of analyst updates:

  • Weiss Ratings maintained a “hold (c+)” stance.
  • Wall Street Zen upgraded the stock to a “strong‑buy.”
  • JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its price target to $105.00 and issued a “neutral” rating.
  • Zacks Research recently downgraded the stock to a “hold.”

Kaiser’s exposure to aluminium production and downstream alloy manufacturing positions it to benefit from the upward price trajectory and the expanding demand for high‑performance aluminium alloys.

Chinese Expansion into Battery‑Grade Aluminium

On 15 January, Chongqing Shunbo Aluminium Co., Ltd. announced a planned capital raise of up to ¥580 million (≈ $85 million) to fund the construction of a 630,000‑tonne annual production line for aluminium alloy flanges and a 500,000‑tonne annual output of aluminium plate‑broad products. The company intends to dedicate 40 % of the new plate‑broad capacity to battery‑grade aluminium, directly serving the fast‑growing electric‑vehicle and energy‑storage markets. The phased roll‑out is slated to begin in 2026, with incremental sales targets of 12 t, 24 t, and 40 t per year through 2028.

Shunbo’s initiative reflects a strategic pivot toward high‑value applications—such as battery casings, foil substrates, and lightweight components for EVs—aligning with China’s “dual‑carbon” goals and the broader global transition to electrification and renewable energy.

Broader Macro‑Context

While the aluminium market has largely moved in isolation from the U.S. Treasury dynamics highlighted in the international capital‑flow report, the backdrop of policy‑led demand support remains relevant. The reopening of the U.S. federal government after a 43‑day shutdown, coupled with renewed investor confidence in U.S. sovereign debt, signals a stabilizing economic environment that may indirectly bolster industrial commodity demand, including aluminium.

Outlook

The confluence of a price target upgrade, corporate expansion, and macro‑economic stabilization paints a cautiously optimistic picture for aluminium:

  • Price trajectory: With the CME close near a 52‑week high and Citi’s bullish forecast, a short‑term rally appears credible.
  • Demand drivers: EVs, energy storage, and green packaging continue to fuel demand for lightweight, corrosion‑resistant alloys.
  • Supply dynamics: Strategic expansions in China and other key producers aim to meet the projected rise in battery‑grade aluminium consumption.

Investors and industry participants should monitor both pricing movements on the CME and the progress of supply‑chain enhancements, as these will shape the aluminium market over the coming months.