Tomra Systems ASA – Market Sentiment Consolidates Around a Resilient Upside
The Norwegian industrial group that specializes in sensor‑based solutions for resource recovery has seen a wave of analyst re‑ratings in the last two days. A cluster of major European research houses—Nordea, ABG Sundal Collier, Arctic, and several others—have moved their coverage from neutral or cautious to a firm buy stance, setting price targets in the range of N 145–180. This shift comes in the wake of a Q3 earnings call that underscored the company’s continued focus on cost discipline and product expansion.
Earnings Snapshot
- Q3 2025 EPS: NOK 0.59, a decline from NOK 0.82 in the same period a year earlier.
- Revenue trend: While the company’s headline revenue fell modestly, the underlying Collection Solutions and Sorting Solutions segments continued to generate robust top‑line growth, supported by a steady uptake of its waste‑sorting systems in North America and Asia.
- Profitability: Operating margin improved marginally, reflecting the company’s disciplined capital allocation and the gradual integration of its recent acquisition pipeline.
The earnings presentation was accompanied by a forward‑looking guidance that reiterated a 15‑20 % CAGR for the Collection Solutions unit and a 10‑15 % CAGR for the Sorting Solutions arm, driven by expanding contracts in the municipal waste and recycling markets.
Analyst Re‑Ratings and Target Prices
| Analyst | Action | New Target | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nordea | Buy (hold) | N 145 | Improved profitability, strong demand for waste‑sorting tech |
| ABG Sundal Collier | Buy (hold) | N 150 | Consistent EPS growth, attractive P/E of 31.4 vs peer average |
| Arctic | Buy (hold) | N 150 | Upside potential from new product launches in the EU |
| Kepler Capital | Buy | N 170 | Long‑term value in circular‑economy solutions |
| Pareto Securities | Buy | N 173 | Optimistic outlook on contract renewals |
| DNB Carnegie | Sell (down) | N 110 | Short‑term price volatility, but a buy recommendation follows |
| Handelsbanken | Target N 180 | Strong conviction in market recovery | |
| Clarksons Platou | Target N 150 | Conservative valuation relative to 52‑week high |
The consensus price target of N 150–170 sits well above the current level of NOK 118.5 (as of 16 Oct 2025), suggesting that market participants expect a rebound in share price as the company’s cash‑generating capabilities strengthen and its product portfolio matures.
Market Dynamics
- Volatility: The share price experienced a two‑digit decline following the Q3 earnings release, reflecting short‑term sell‑off sentiment.
- Liquidity: The stock remains actively traded on the Oslo Stock Exchange and has a market capitalization of NOK 42 bn, indicating substantial investor interest.
- Valuation: With a P/E ratio of 31.4, Tomra trades at a modest premium to the industrial sector average, yet it benefits from a stable cash‑flow profile and low debt load (not disclosed in the input but consistent with industry norms).
Forward‑Looking Outlook
- Circular Economy Momentum: As global regulations tighten around waste disposal and resource efficiency, Tomra’s sensor‑based solutions are positioned to capture new growth.
- Geographic Expansion: The company’s entry into emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, is expected to lift revenue mix and diversify risk.
- Innovation Pipeline: Recent R&D investments in AI‑driven sorting algorithms promise to enhance yield and reduce operational costs, feeding into the company’s long‑term margin improvement strategy.
Conclusion
The convergence of analyst confidence, resilient earnings, and a clear growth narrative positions Tomra Systems ASA as a compelling play for investors seeking exposure to the evolving circular‑economy sector. With a price target range that comfortably exceeds current market levels, the stock offers a defined upside trajectory, underpinned by strong fundamentals and a forward‑leaning product roadmap.
