Australian Dollar / Japanese Yen Cross – 2025‑11‑07

The AUD/JPY cross has remained anchored near the 99.00 level during the Asian session on Friday, 7 November 2025. The pair oscillated within a narrow trading range and stayed close to a two‑week low that had been retested the previous day. The cross has also been held within striking distance of the year‑to‑date high of 101.20 that was reached in October.

Key Drivers of the Current Range

  1. Japan’s Economic Fundamentals
  • Data released early on Friday indicated a slowdown in private consumption in Japan.
  • Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has expressed a pro‑stimulus stance, giving the Bank of Japan (BoJ) room to keep policy loose.
  • Minutes from the BoJ’s September policy meeting, published on Wednesday, suggested the possibility of an imminent rate hike, which has tempered expectations of a stronger yen.
  • These developments support a bearish view on the yen, thereby exerting upward pressure on the AUD/JPY pair.
  1. Chinese Trade Balance and Market Sentiment
  • China’s trade balance figures released today were disappointing, pointing to weak domestic demand in the world’s second‑largest economy.
  • The data raised concerns about trade‑related uncertainties and contributed to a generally weaker tone in equity markets, providing a safe‑haven push for the yen.
  • The combination of a weaker yen and a subdued global risk appetite has kept the AUD/JPY cross near the 99.00 mark.
  1. Global Risk Environment
  • Global markets have adopted a defensive posture this week, with high‑beta currencies experiencing pressure.
  • The dollar has been bid up as positions are pared back in emerging markets, and cross rates such as AUD/JPY have fallen by 2.00–2.25 % in the G10 space.
  • The yen is seen as the preferred safe haven, while Swiss authorities are expected to oppose a stronger franc.

Technical Snapshot

  • Close (2025‑11‑05): 100.35
  • 52‑Week High: 101.548 (19 November 2024)
  • 52‑Week Low: 86.176 (8 April 2025)

The pair remains near a key psychological level of 99.00, which has acted as a support zone during recent intraday swings. Any sustained move above this level could signal a continuation of the pullback from the October high, whereas a breach below could open the possibility of a rally toward the 86‑level zone.

Outlook

The current market consensus points to a cautious stance on the AUD/JPY pair. The combination of Japan’s cautious monetary outlook, weak Chinese trade data, and a broader defensive tilt in global markets is likely to keep the cross in a tight range around the 99.00 mark in the near term. A reversal of the BoJ’s policy stance or a significant shift in Chinese economic indicators could alter this trajectory.