Market Overview of AUD/JPY on 10 April 2026

The Australian dollar versus the Japanese yen (AUD/JPY) remained largely unchanged around the 112.50 level during the first trading hours of 10 April 2026. The pair’s price was supported by a risk‑off sentiment that continued to favour the yen, while the Australian dollar weakened slightly following recent data releases and geopolitical developments.

Key Drivers of the Current Market Position

  1. Chinese Consumer Price Index (CPI) Surprise On 10 April 2026, China reported a March CPI increase of 0.9 % year‑over‑year, which fell short of the 1.2 % forecast and followed a 1.3 % rise in February. The weaker inflation reading reduced expectations for a tightening stance by the People’s Bank of China, thereby supporting the yen. This data contributed to the AUD/JPY remaining near 112.50, the highest level seen since 18 March.

  2. Geopolitical Uncertainty – U.S.–Iran Tensions Continued concerns over a fragile cease‑fire between the United States and Iran have amplified risk aversion among investors. The heightened uncertainty has reinforced the yen’s safe‑haven appeal and pressured the AUD/JPY pair to stay subdued.

  3. Oil Price Impact on the Yen Higher oil prices exert pressure on the yen as Japan is heavily exposed to Middle‑East supply risks. The stronger oil market has weakened the yen, creating upward pressure on the AUD/JPY pair. However, the effect was offset by the risk‑off environment and the weaker Chinese CPI, resulting in a net neutral movement.

  4. Expectations of Monetary Policy Actions Markets anticipate a potential rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in May. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to adopt an expansionary stance if the Middle‑East conflict persists. These differing policy outlooks add to the volatility but have not yet produced a decisive move in AUD/JPY.

  5. Technical Analysis The pair hovered above the 111.50 level, which acts as a recent support zone. It also remained above the 100‑day exponential moving average, indicating a bullish bias in the short‑term technical picture. Nonetheless, the price formation of a “shooting‑star” pattern earlier in the day suggested potential bearish pressure, with a forecast of a drop below 112.00 if bears gain momentum.

Summary

  • Price Position: AUD/JPY held near 112.50 during early 10 April 2026 trading.
  • Primary Influences: Weak Chinese CPI, ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions, higher oil prices, and divergent policy expectations between the RBA and BoJ.
  • Technical Stance: Above key support at 111.50 and the 100‑day EMA; potential bearish reversal if the shooting‑star pattern materialises.

The market remains sensitive to upcoming inflation releases, geopolitical developments, and central‑bank announcements. Investors should monitor these factors closely to assess any future shifts in the AUD/JPY exchange rate.