Bitcoin’s Post‑ETF Phase: Flow Volatility and Growing Unrealized Losses

Bitcoin’s price, which closed at $75,518 on 2026‑02‑02, is presently trading in a range that has exposed the fragility of the U.S. spot ETF market. The asset’s 52‑week high of $130,063 (2025‑08‑05) and 52‑week low of $59,300.9 (2025‑11‑17) underscore the volatility that has become normalized in the post‑ETF era.

Inflows Resurface Amid Persistent Outflows

On Monday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $561.9 million in net inflows, ending a four‑day outflow streak. This temporary reprieve is the latest sign that regulated products are still drawing liquidity, but it is dwarfed by the broader trend of net outflows over the past month. In the first two weeks of February alone, the ETFs have seen withdrawals totalling $3 billion, a stark reversal of the $2.8 billion inflows that buoyed the market in early January.

The inflow on 2026‑02‑02 (≈$419.8 million) provided only fleeting relief, as the market continues to swing between redemptions that cumulatively exceed $1.49 billion (January 21) and $1.32 billion (January 29). These figures illustrate the erosion of investor confidence that has followed Bitcoin’s descent from its 2025 peak.

ETF Investors Face Significant Paper Losses

According to on‑chain analytics from Glassnode, the average entry price for U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors sits at roughly $84,100 per BTC. With the current market price hovering near $78,657—and having dipped below $75,000 over the weekend—these holders are now enduring unrealized losses of 8‑9 %. The cumulative loss for this cohort is already translating into accelerated outflows, a pattern that has persisted through the week.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that a large portion of the outflows comes from the largest ETF providers. BlackRock’s IBIT alone recorded outflows of $528 million on January 30, while Fidelity’s FBTC suffered similarly large redemptions. This concentration of liquidity drain raises concerns about the resilience of the ETF structure when faced with continued downward pressure.

Macro Conditions and Decoupling of Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s decline of more than 35 % from its 2025 peak has coincided with a weakening of the macro narratives that previously underpinned its valuation. Analysts point to a contraction in liquidity, tightening financial conditions, and a growing decoupling of Bitcoin from traditional risk assets. Unlike prior cycles where Bitcoin rallied on dollar weakness or geopolitical uncertainty, the current environment has rendered the asset directionless as speculative interest wanes.

This lack of correlation with broader market risk factors is a double‑edged sword: while it preserves Bitcoin’s status as an uncorrelated asset, it also diminishes its appeal to traditional institutional investors who seek a hedge against market turbulence.

Institutional Exposure to Unrealized Losses

Approximately 10 % of all Bitcoin—about 2 million coins— held by traditional financial institutions now sit at unrealized losses approaching $7 billion. This figure highlights the scale of the challenge facing ETF investors and the broader institutional ecosystem. As Bitcoin continues to trade below the average ETF entry price for the first time since 2025, the pressure on institutional balance sheets will likely intensify unless a recovery in demand materializes.

Outlook

The current trajectory suggests that Bitcoin’s post‑ETF era is still in flux. While brief inflow surges indicate that regulated products can attract capital, sustained outflows driven by unrealized losses and a lack of macro support may continue to erode investor confidence. A durable bottom for Bitcoin will likely require a reversal in institutional positioning and a re‑establishment of macro narratives that justify higher valuations. Until such a shift occurs, the market is poised to remain in a holding pattern, with institutional investors grappling with significant paper losses and a cautious approach to new capital deployment.