Global Outlook

The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that global coal consumption reached a record 8.85 billion metric tons in 2025, the highest level in the recorded history of the energy sector. According to the same assessment, the trajectory of coal demand will shift from a plateau to a gradual decline over the remainder of the decade, as renewable energy, natural gas and nuclear power expand their shares of the generation mix. The IEA projects a net decrease in consumption by 2030, signalling the end of coal’s dominance in the global energy mix.

Regional Developments

India

  • The IEA forecast a 3 % annual increase in India’s coal demand for the next four years.
  • Despite the projected growth, India is expected to record its third year‑on‑year decline in coal‑fired power generation in 50 years during 2025. The decline is attributed to an early and robust monsoon season that raises hydropower output and reduces electricity demand.
  • The overall trend suggests that India will remain the largest absolute increase in coal consumption through 2030, but the growth rate will be modest compared to the global peak.

China

  • The IEA indicates that China’s coal demand will fall by 2027, a decline that will outweigh any supportive policies introduced by the Trump administration.
  • The reduction reflects China’s commitment to dismantling the world’s largest coal sector and shifting toward cleaner energy sources.

United States

  • The U.S. government has ordered a coal plant in Washington state to remain operational beyond its scheduled retirement, marking a third invocation of emergency powers by the Trump administration to preserve a power plant.
  • This action follows a broader pattern of U.S. policy interventions aimed at preventing winter power shortages, although it is at odds with the overall trend of declining coal demand.

Market Dynamics and Policy Actions

  • Renewable Energy Growth: Transition Thursday highlighted the rapid expansion of renewable energy, which is accelerating the plateauing of coal demand globally.
  • Tariff Impact: The U.S. tariffs on coal have been described as a costly burden on small and medium businesses, particularly during the holiday season, adding an economic pressure point to the sector.
  • Financial Performance: Seeking Alpha’s analysis of year‑to‑date performance identified coal and consumable fuels as among the top‑performing sectors, suggesting that short‑term investment interest remains strong despite long‑term structural headwinds.

Conclusion

The coal market is experiencing a pivotal transition. While 2025 represents a record high in consumption, the IEA’s projections indicate a structural shift toward lower coal reliance by 2030, driven by renewable, gas, and nuclear growth. Regional responses vary: India is poised for moderate growth amid short‑term dips, China is actively reducing demand, and the United States is employing policy measures to maintain specific coal operations. These dynamics collectively underscore the complex interplay between market demand, policy interventions, and the broader energy transition.