A Surge in Confidence: COFC’s 2025 Trading Momentum and the Forces Behind It
The Shenzhen-listed CNFC Overseas Fishery Co., Ltd (ticker sz000798) shattered the 10 % daily limit on 17 November 2025 and again on 18 November 2025, propelling the stock from a 52‑week low of ¥6.36 to a new high of ¥11.34. At the close on the 18th, the market value of the company stood at CNY 41.49 billion, a dramatic increase over its CNY 3.43 billion market cap recorded a year earlier. The trading volume—¥2.84 billion on the 18th—underscores the breadth of institutional interest that accompanied this rally.
1. Financial Revitalisation: Profit Growth and Cash‑Flow Turnaround
Analysts point to a 230 % YoY jump in net profit and a 383 % rise in net profit after non‑recurring items for the first three quarters of 2025. Operating cash‑flow, which had been negative, turned positive with a CNY 4.51 billion net increase, a clear sign that the company’s core operations are generating sustainable cash. The company’s P/E ratio of –51.31—a relic of the last year’s earnings slump—now reflects a fundamental turnaround rather than a valuation anomaly.
2. Fiscal Support and Capital Injection
Government backing materialised in a CNY 2.69 billion subsidy, of which CNY 2.52 billion were directly linked to earnings. Additionally, the controlling shareholder supplied a CNY 4.50 billion low‑interest loan (2.80 %‑2.92 %), alleviating liquidity pressures and signalling confidence in the company’s long‑term prospects. These inflows not only cushion the balance sheet but also act as a catalyst for investor sentiment.
3. Governance Reform and Shareholder Protection
COFC announced a structural overhaul that includes the abolition of the supervisory board and a revision of its articles of association. The new governance model promises streamlined decision‑making and strengthens minority shareholders through enhanced voting rights, including separate ballot counts for smaller stakes. Such reforms are designed to build trust among institutional investors and to reduce agency costs.
4. Strategic Asset Expansion: The Tuna Vessel Project
The company completed the construction of a tuna‑catching vessel—a strategic asset expected to deliver measurable earnings by the end of 2025. The project represents a critical step in COFC’s shift from a pure fishing operator to a vertically integrated seafood producer, thereby increasing margins and diversifying revenue streams.
5. Market Mechanics: Institutional Buying and “Dark‑Pool” Activity
On 17 November, COFC entered the “龙虎榜” (the “dragon‑tiger board”), registering ¥1.18 billion in transactions. The buying pattern—strong net purchases by hedge funds and institutional players—suggests that the rally was not merely a short‑term speculative play. The 9.99 % rise on the 18th, the largest single‑day gain in recent weeks, was underpinned by a ¥2.84 billion volume that dwarfed the typical daily turnover for a mid‑cap Shenzhen listing.
6. Industry Context: Water‑Product Sector Momentum
The 2025 water‑product sector experienced a wave of “涨停” (limit‑up) stocks such as 中水渔业 (the same entity) and 国联水产, buoyed by expectations of rising domestic demand for high‑quality seafood and the country’s “国产替代” policy. The sector’s collective surge has amplified the visibility of COFC’s performance, attracting further capital into the water‑product and defense‑linked supply chains.
7. Risks and Caveats
Despite the bullish technicals, the negative P/E and a 52‑week range that still leaves a margin for decline indicate that the stock remains vulnerable to earnings volatility. The company’s heavy reliance on government subsidies and the ongoing transition of its governance structure add layers of uncertainty. Moreover, macro‑economic factors—such as tightening credit conditions and potential policy shifts in the seafood export market—could temper the upside.
In sum, CNFC Overseas Fishery Co., Ltd has leveraged a confluence of earnings recovery, cash‑flow normalization, strategic asset deployment, and governance reform to ignite a market‑wide rally. The 2025 trading dynamics present a compelling narrative of resilience in the face of industry headwinds, yet they also underscore the imperative for investors to remain vigilant against the volatility inherent in a high‑leverage, policy‑dependent business model.
