EUR/AUD Exchange Rate Outlook

The EUR/AUD pair has continued to move higher into the week, confirming the persistent upward trend observed in the most recent market data. As of 9 February 2026, the Australian dollar closed at 1.68035 against the euro, comfortably within the 52‑week range that spans a low of 1.6355 (February 19 2025) and a high of 1.85521 (April 8 2025). The current trajectory suggests that the AUD remains under pressure, buoyed by stronger domestic growth expectations and a comparatively muted eurozone outlook.

Drivers of the Upward Momentum

  1. Monetary Policy Divergence The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has maintained a dovish stance, keeping policy rates below those of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB’s recent easing measures, coupled with ongoing fiscal stimulus in the eurozone, have tempered expectations for the euro’s short‑term strength.

  2. Domestic Economic Indicators Australian economic data—particularly the latest inflation readings and employment figures—continue to support a resilient currency. The persistence of lower inflation rates relative to the eurozone has reinforced the AUD’s appeal to risk‑seeking investors.

  3. Risk‑on Market Sentiment Global equity markets have shown a pronounced risk‑on bias, reflected in the strengthening of commodity‑linked currencies such as the AUD. This sentiment is further amplified by the relative stability of the Australian mining sector, which remains a key driver of export earnings.

Technical Context

Chart analysis indicates that the EUR/AUD pair is trading above its 200‑day moving average, a classic sign of a bullish bias. The recent swing high, recorded in early February, has not yet been broken, but the pair has consistently tested resistance levels near 1.7000. A sustained move beyond this threshold would likely herald a new phase of upward momentum, potentially pushing the AUD into the upper part of its 52‑week range.

Forward‑Looking Assessment

Given the confluence of favorable domestic conditions and a dovish monetary stance, the AUD is expected to maintain its relative strength against the euro through the second half of 2026. However, traders should remain vigilant for:

  • ECB Policy Shifts: Any unexpected tightening could reverse the current trend.
  • Global Commodity Price Movements: A decline in commodity prices would reduce the AUD’s appeal.
  • Geopolitical Developments: Escalations that increase risk aversion could prompt a flight to the euro.

In conclusion, the EUR/AUD exchange rate is poised to stay in an upward trajectory, supported by robust Australian fundamentals and a comparatively weaker eurozone environment. Market participants should monitor key economic releases and central bank announcements for any signs that could alter this outlook.