Euro against the Australian Dollar: Recent Market Developments and Fundamental Context

The EUR/AUD pair has settled at 1.78688 on 20 October 2025, a level comfortably above the 52‑week low of 1.59711 reached on 21 November 2024 but still below the 52‑week high of 1.85521 set on 8 April 2025. The current price reflects a mixture of domestic economic signals, global monetary policy expectations, and corporate earnings news that has reverberated through the currency markets.

1. Corporate Earnings and Market Sentiment

TeamViewer’s Q3 2025 Results

On 21 October 2025, German software firm TeamViewer SE released its third‑quarter results, announcing:

  • Revenue of €192.0 million on a pro‑forma basis, up 4 % year‑over‑year on a constant‑currency basis.
  • Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) of €756.8 million, also rising 4 % YoY.
  • An adjusted EBITDA margin of 46 %, signalling healthy profitability.

The earnings release was accompanied by an upward revision of the firm’s 2025 guidance. TeamViewer’s consistent growth, particularly in its enterprise segment (reported up 8 % YoY), has been interpreted by market observers as a sign of resilience in the technology sector despite broader economic uncertainty. The positive earnings surprise has supported risk‑on sentiment, buoying currencies linked to the euro area.

2. Central Bank Commentary and Liquidity Concerns

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane’s Speech

In a recent speech in Ireland, Philip Lane, the European Central Bank’s chief economist, highlighted growing uncertainty over the reliability of USD‑denominated liquid assets held by euro‑area banks. He pointed to:

  • A sell‑off in U.S. Treasury securities, which has reduced the liquidity and quality of U.S. dollar holdings.
  • A weakening U.S. dollar that has made it more expensive for euro‑area banks to hedge and to maintain sufficient U.S. dollar liquidity.

Lane’s remarks underline the challenges that banks face in managing cross‑currency risk in a volatile global environment. The perception of increased liquidity risk tends to strengthen the euro against the dollar, as banks and investors seek safer euro‑denominated assets.

3. Impact on the EUR/AUD Pair

The confluence of TeamViewer’s solid earnings and the ECB’s cautionary commentary has reinforced the euro’s position relative to the Australian dollar. Key points include:

  1. Risk‑on sentiment driven by European corporate earnings has attracted capital toward the euro, while the AUD, which is more sensitive to commodity price swings and global risk appetite, has lagged.
  2. Liquidity concerns raised by the ECB have nudged market participants to favor euro‑denominated instruments, adding further upside pressure on the EUR/AUD rate.
  3. Australia’s economic backdrop—which continues to face modest growth and a commodity‑driven export sector—has not offset the euro’s strengthening trend.

Given the current level of 1.78688, the pair remains well above its recent trough but below its recent peak. Analysts project that unless there are significant shifts in commodity prices or a dramatic change in U.S. monetary policy, the euro is likely to maintain a modest upward bias against the AUD in the near term.

4. Technical and Fundamental Outlook

  • 52‑Week High/Low Range: The EUR/AUD pair’s current position sits approximately 13 % below its all‑time high and 12 % above its low, suggesting a healthy trading range.
  • Fundamental Strength: Strong earnings from major European tech firms, coupled with a stable euro‑area banking environment, underpin the euro’s resilience.
  • Potential Risks: Any sharp deterioration in Australian commodity markets, or a sudden shift in U.S. Treasury liquidity conditions, could temporarily pressure the AUD.

Investors and traders should monitor upcoming Australian economic data releases, particularly those related to commodities and retail sales, as well as any further ECB communications that may adjust the perceived risk profile of USD‑denominated assets.