Ferrexpo PLC surges amid geopolitical optimism and a record‑breaking economic impact in Ukraine
Ferrexpo PLC’s shares climbed sharply on the London market, reflecting a confluence of factors that have suddenly turned the once‑dull miner into a headline‑making performer. The rally is not a mere flash of speculation; it is rooted in the company’s decisive role in Ukraine’s economy and the broader narrative of a potential end to the war that could lift commodity prices and restore confidence in defence‑linked equities.
1. A surge driven by “small‑cap winners”
The London Stock Exchange reported that Ferrexpo “jumps” as part of a group of small‑cap stocks that gained momentum after a positive commentary from the “Walker Crips” investment community. The firm’s stock closed at £70.6 on 23 November 2025, a price that sits comfortably between the 52‑week high of £124 and the low of £41.3, indicating a strong uptrend. The move is amplified by the firm’s unique position: a Swiss‑registered, London‑listed iron‑ore producer operating an open‑pit mine, concentrator and pelletising plant in the Komsomolsk area of the Poltava region. This single‑asset focus gives the company a clear operational narrative, which investors are now rewarding.
2. Nearly $3 billion injected into Ukraine’s economy
An exclusive report from gmk.center revealed that since the full‑scale Russian invasion in February 2022, Ferrexpo has funneled almost $3 billion into Ukraine’s economy. The Responsible Business Report 2024 attributes this contribution to:
| Component | Contribution |
|---|---|
| Salaries | $1.5 billion |
| Taxes | $0.7 billion |
| Capital investment | $0.6 billion |
| Local procurement | $0.2 billion |
This figure dwarfs the company’s own revenues and underscores the magnitude of its socio‑economic footprint. It also explains why the firm’s fortunes are so tightly interwoven with the political climate in Ukraine. As the possibility of a peace plan looms, the market is pricing in the potential removal of fiscal headwinds (such as the suspension of VAT refunds) that could further boost Ferrexpo’s cash flow.
3. The geopolitical backdrop
The same day as the share surge, several Ukrainian companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange rallied 6‑20 % on news of progress in Geneva peace talks involving the U.S. administration and Ukraine. Delo.ua, minfin.com.ua, and zn.ua all reported that the momentum in Ukrainian equities is a direct reflection of the optimism surrounding a possible end to the war. For Ferrexpo, this is doubly significant:
- Commodity demand – A cessation of hostilities is expected to lift steel demand across Europe and Asia, directly benefiting Ferrexpo’s pellet sales.
- Defence‑sector sentiment – Fidelity.co.uk noted that weak defence stocks limited gains earlier in the week; however, the emerging peace narrative has the potential to lift the entire sector, creating a positive tailwind for Ferrexpo as a non‑defence but war‑affected company.
4. Fundamental health in a volatile environment
Despite operating in a conflict zone, Ferrexpo’s fundamentals remain solid. The company is listed on the London Stock Exchange, trading in GBP with a price‑to‑earnings ratio of -1.79, reflecting the negative earnings that are typical for mining companies during downturns. Nonetheless, the company’s cash flow, supported by its large contribution to the Ukrainian economy, offsets the negative P/E. The market’s willingness to buy the stock at £70.6 indicates a confidence that the company will recover once the war subsides and commodity prices rebound.
5. Conclusion – A rally with staying power
Ferrexpo’s surge is not a fleeting reaction to a headline; it is the culmination of a clear business case: a single‑asset, high‑quality iron‑ore operation that has become a pillar of Ukraine’s wartime economy. The company’s strategic importance, combined with the optimistic geopolitical outlook, has convinced investors to move beyond traditional commodity cycles and into a narrative of reconstruction and growth.
If the Geneva talks indeed lead to a durable peace, Ferrexpo’s shares are likely to keep climbing, propelled by a robust supply chain, rising steel demand, and a reinforced investor appetite for companies that have proven resilient in the face of conflict. The current rally is, therefore, not a speculative bubble but a rational response to a company that has become indispensable to a nation under siege and to the broader global market that relies on its iron‑ore pellets.
