GBP/USD Holds Steady Amid Mixed Economic Signals

The British pound has slipped back below 1.3150, trading near 1.3120 during the Asian session on Thursday, 13 November 2025. The move comes as traders await the United Kingdom’s flash gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the third quarter, expected later in the day. The currency remains subdued for a third successive session, reflecting the market’s caution around both domestic economic data and broader geopolitical developments.

Key Economic Drivers

  • UK GDP Expectations The Office for National Statistics is set to release advanced Q3 GDP figures, with consensus estimates suggesting a modest 1.4 % annualised growth. A confirmation of this trajectory would support speculation that the Bank of England may cut rates in December, further weighing on the pound.

  • Political Uncertainty Reports of a potential challenge to Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership have injected additional pressure on the sterling. Political volatility is generally negative for the currency, especially when coupled with the upcoming fiscal budget announcement.

  • US Dollar Context The dollar remains under pressure as investors adopt a risk‑on stance in anticipation of a short‑term government funding vote in the United States. The dollar’s relative weakness has helped keep the GBP/USD pair at its current levels, but any positive sentiment around U.S. fiscal resolution could strengthen the dollar and exert further downward pressure on sterling.

Technical Landscape

  • The pair has been trading in a tight range around 1.3120–1.3150.
  • A break below 1.3100 would signal a shift toward a more bearish stance, potentially opening the door for further declines toward the 52‑week low of 1.21013.
  • Conversely, a rebound above 1.3150 would confirm a short‑term bullish bias, suggesting that the pound could test the 52‑week high of 1.37887 if dovish signals from the Bank of England materialise.

Forward Outlook

  • Short‑Term With the UK GDP release imminent, the market will likely stay on edge. If the data exceed expectations, the pound may rally modestly, lifting GBP/USD toward 1.3200. However, any indication that the Bank of England will delay a rate cut could prolong the current consolidation phase.

  • Medium‑Term The political landscape remains fragile. Should Starmer’s leadership prove secure and the fiscal budget avoid surprise deficits, the pound could recover some ground. Persistent political chatter, however, will likely keep the pair under pressure.

  • Long‑Term The broader macro backdrop—particularly the U.S. government funding vote outcome and the trajectory of global risk sentiment—will continue to influence the GBP/USD corridor. A decisive U.S. fiscal resolution could strengthen the dollar, challenging sterling further, while a protracted shutdown could have the opposite effect.

Summary

GBP/USD has settled into a subdued stance as the market digests forthcoming UK GDP data, political uncertainty, and the evolving U.S. fiscal scenario. Traders should monitor the upcoming GDP release and any developments surrounding Prime Minister Starmer’s position, as these factors will determine whether the pound can break out of its current range or continue its downward drift.