Soybean Market Update – 24 December 2025

The global soybean market continues to navigate a complex landscape shaped by geopolitical tensions, shifting trade commitments, and regional production dynamics. Recent data from the CME, coupled with market intelligence from Ukraine, China, the United States, and the European Union, paint a picture of a market that remains resilient yet exposed to several risk factors.

Price Context

  • CME Close (22 Dec 2025): USD 1,051.50
  • 52‑Week High (17 Nov 2025): USD 1,169.50
  • 52‑Week Low (30 Jul 2025): USD 960.75

The current price sits roughly 12 % below the peak but still well above the recent low, reflecting a market that has rebounded from the lows of October while remaining vulnerable to supply‑side disruptions and demand‑side uncertainties.

Ukraine’s Supply Constraints and Export Opportunities

Russian attacks on Odessa’s port infrastructure have persistently curtailed grain acceptance and export shipments, leading to a suspension of grain purchases by Russian operators and a reduction in purchase prices. Despite these setbacks, Ukrainian soybean exports remain in demand within the EU and Middle Eastern markets. In December, 237 000 t of soybean were shipped, with the largest volumes destined for Turkey (86.1 k t), the Netherlands (56.6 k t), and France (33.3 k t). These figures underscore the strategic value of Ukrainian soybeans in regions where supply is increasingly constrained by geopolitical risks.

Brazil’s Upsized Crop Forecast

The latest Brazilian crop outlook has been upwardly revised, intensifying competitive pressure on global soybean prices. An increased supply forecast from Brazil—traditionally a leading producer—raises the risk that global prices could slide if demand fails to keep pace. The market is therefore closely monitoring Brazilian production data and potential export quotas, as any significant uptick could counterbalance the price support offered by Ukraine’s constrained supply.

China’s Import Commitments and Delivery Lag

China remains a pivotal driver of global soybean demand, with a legally binding commitment to purchase 12 million t of U.S. soybeans by year‑end. As of 23 Dec, confirmed sales to China since October total 6.4 million t, leaving a lag of roughly 5.6 million t before the deadline. Officials insist that the deadline is firm, yet the pace of deliveries has been uneven. Analysts note that the “window to meet the obligation” is narrowing, which could exert upward pressure on prices if China accelerates purchasing activity. However, any hesitation could lead to a temporary demand dip, amplifying price volatility.

U.S. Production Highlights

Within the United States, the 2025 Pennsylvania Soybean Yield Contest spotlighted a top producer in Cumberland County, reflecting continued strong domestic output. While the contest itself does not directly influence global supply, it signals robust crop performance in key U.S. states, which could reassure investors about domestic supply adequacy.

European Outlook

The EU Commission’s latest estimate indicates a slight decline in soybean output for the EU‑27 due to reduced cultivation area in 2025. The Commission expects the drop in production to be partially offset by increased imports, yet the net effect could still be a modest supply shortfall, especially in the short term. This scenario further bolsters the case for Ukrainian soybeans and other alternative sources as critical inputs for European feed and food industries.

Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators

  • Trend Analysis: The soybean price curve has moved upward from the two‑month low observed on 21 Dec, suggesting a potential consolidation phase before a new upward trajectory.
  • Basis Stability: Barge‑delivered soybean basis prices at U.S. Gulf terminals remained largely stable following recent sales to China, indicating a balanced supply–demand environment in U.S. export terminals.
  • Demand Signals: Despite recent weakness, market participants note that the overall demand base remains robust, given the high feed consumption in livestock sectors and the importance of soymeal in animal nutrition.

Forward‑Looking Assessment

  1. Geopolitical Risks: Continued conflict in the Odessa region could further curtail Ukrainian exports, tightening global supply and supporting prices.
  2. Brazilian Supply Dynamics: An upsurge in Brazil’s soybean output may counterbalance supply constraints, potentially easing upward pressure.
  3. Chinese Demand Execution: The pace at which China completes its committed purchases will be decisive. A surge could trigger a short‑term price spike; a lag may create a temporary demand vacuum.
  4. EU Production Trends: Continued contraction in EU cultivation area could sustain a supply deficit, reinforcing the strategic importance of non‑EU sources.
  5. U.S. Feed Prices: Elevated livestock and feed prices, as reported by wholesale market data, reinforce demand for soybean meal, providing a stabilizing demand tailwind.

In sum, soybean markets are at a juncture where supply constraints from Ukraine and potential Brazilian output increases coexist with a looming Chinese procurement deadline. Traders and institutional investors should monitor Ukrainian export flows, Brazilian production data, and Chinese procurement activity closely, as each factor can shift the market equilibrium in the coming weeks.