Cocoa Market Update – 29 January 2026

The price of cocoa futures on the Intercontinental Exchange settled at $4,146 per metric tonne on 27 January 2026, a level that sits roughly 20 % below the 52‑week low of $3,613 recorded on 18 January and 63 % below the 52‑week high of $11,324 reached on 2 February 2025.

Supply‑Demand Dynamics

  • Supply: Reports from Barchart on 28 January highlight that abundant supplies are exerting downward pressure on prices. The same day’s analysis notes that West African producers have held back new shipments, a move that helped cocoa prices rebound on 26 January.
  • Demand: Demand remains tepid. The Barchart piece titled “Robust Supplies and Tepid Demand Hammers Cocoa Prices” (28 January) underscores weak market demand as a key driver of the recent price decline.

Currency Influence

  • The U.S. dollar’s relative weakness has been identified by Barchart on 27 January as supportive for cocoa prices. Short covering in futures markets, triggered by the dollar’s decline, temporarily lifted prices earlier in the month.

Regional Developments

  • Ghana: The Ghana Cocoa Regulatory Authority is reconsidering its financing model after a wave of unpaid farmers (ESM Magazine, 29 January). In parallel, the IFC and Access Bank partnership announced on 29 January seeks to expand affordable financing for Licensed Buying Companies, aiming to improve liquidity for smallholder farmers and strengthen traceability. The Bank of Ghana has also introduced a risk‑sharing guarantee scheme with Access Bank, as reported by MyJoyOnline (26 January).
  • Nigeria: The Federal Government pledged at a London forum (BusinessDay, 28 January) to reposition Nigeria among the world’s leading cocoa producers, signalling potential future supply adjustments.

Market Sentiment

  • The market’s short‑term sentiment has been mixed. While Barchart’s 27 January reports note a rebound in New‑York cocoa futures, the overall price trend remains subdued due to the factors outlined above.

Outlook

Analysts anticipate that cocoa prices will continue to be sensitive to the interplay between West African supply decisions and global demand conditions. Currency movements, particularly the U.S. dollar’s strength, will also play a crucial role in short‑term price volatility.