ICICI Securities’ Market‑Making Strategy: A Tactical Overview of Recent Calls

ICICI Securities has issued a torrent of research notes on 7 May 2026, each accompanied by a clear buy‑hold‑sell recommendation and a target price. The breadth of coverage—from cement and retail to automotive and infrastructure—highlights the firm’s attempt to capitalize on sectoral tailwinds while maintaining a disciplined valuation approach. Below is a synthesis of the most consequential insights.

1. Cement & Construction: Shree Cement – Hold, target ₹26,200

ICICI’s analysis points to a 45 % quarter‑on‑quarter surge in Q4 FY26 EBITDA, driven by a 18 % year‑on‑year rise in operating profit. Despite a sector under pressure from rising raw‑material costs, Shree Cement’s cost‑control measures and expanding domestic order book are expected to keep margins buoyant. The firm therefore advises a hold stance, suggesting that the current valuation already reflects the upside potential.

2. Retail & Consumer Durables: Shoppers Stop – Hold, target ₹330

A 9.3 % YoY revenue growth in Q4 FY26, coupled with a full‑year departmental expansion, underpins a positive outlook. The retailer’s focus on omnichannel integration appears to be paying off, but ICICI remains cautious about possible headwinds from rising consumer inflation and a tightening credit environment. A hold recommendation signals confidence in short‑term resilience but warns of longer‑term valuation compression.

3. Automotive: Bajaj Auto – Buy, target ₹12,000

Bajaj Auto’s Q4 FY26 performance outpaced expectations, with domestic sales growth serving as a catalyst. The firm’s strategic push into premium models and export markets is expected to lift margins further. ICICI’s buy call, coupled with a substantial target, signals aggressive upside potential, premised on sustained demand recovery and supply‑chain stability.

4. Power & Utilities: CESC – Buy, target ₹220

CESC’s EBITDA rose 23 % YoY to ₹12 bn, and profits climbed 18 % YoY. The firm attributes these gains to the successful acquisition of a minority stake in a competitor, which expanded the customer base and improved economies of scale. ICICI’s bullish stance reflects confidence in the company’s ability to leverage cost efficiencies and capture additional revenue streams.

5. Financial Services: Poonawalla Fincorp – Buy, target ₹520

A PAT of ₹2.6 bn in Q4 FY26 marks another strong quarter. Poonawalla Fincorp’s focus on niche lending segments and digital distribution platforms is expected to sustain growth. The buy recommendation and target price indicate that ICICI expects continued profitability expansion, underpinned by favorable regulatory reforms in the fintech space.

6. Diversified Conglomerates: Mahindra & Mahindra – Buy, target ₹4,000

The conglomerate’s EBITDAM of 14.1 % fell slightly below expectations, yet ICICI still recommends a buy. This may seem counterintuitive, but the underlying logic centers on the company’s strategic diversification—spanning automotive, agriculture, and IT services—providing a buffer against cyclicality. The target price reflects a long‑term value‑creation narrative.

7. Real Estate: Sobha – Buy, target ₹1,669

With FY26 sales bookings at ₹81.4 bn (30 % YoY), Sobha’s performance remains robust. ICICI’s call is based on the firm’s premium residential portfolio and a strong pipeline in high‑end segments. The target price anticipates a continuation of price appreciation driven by limited supply in luxury housing.

8. Housing Finance: Aadhar Housing Finance – Buy, target ₹625

The institution’s FY26 franchise resilience is highlighted as a key driver. ICICI’s recommendation hinges on the company’s focus on non‑core loan products and an expanding borrower base in Tier‑2 cities, suggesting a path to improved asset quality and profitability.

9. FinTech & Digital Lending: Aavas Financiers – Buy, target ₹1,725

A pivotal year marked by leadership changes could inject new strategic direction. ICICI’s bullish stance likely reflects expectations of operational turnaround, cost discipline, and a sharpened focus on digital lending platforms.

10. Capital Markets & Asset Management: Aditya Birla Capital – Buy, target ₹420

A robust growth trajectory in both the fund‑management and wealth‑management segments underpins this recommendation. ICICI views the firm’s diversified revenue streams and strong market position as a buffer against competitive pressures.

11. IT & Consulting: Coforge – Buy, target ₹1,660

ICICI projects organic revenue growth for FY27 to be impacted by the exit of low‑margin Indian portfolios. Nevertheless, the firm maintains a buy call, suggesting confidence that the company will pivot toward higher‑margin services and leverage its global delivery capabilities.

12. Chemical & Specialty Products: PCBL Chemical – Reduce, target ₹270

Despite a good Q4 print driven by domestic carbon‑black volume growth, the recommendation to reduce reflects concerns over potential price volatility and margin compression in the chemical segment.

13. Home Furnishings: Kajaria Ceramics – Reduce, target ₹1,072

Although the company recorded 12.4 % YoY revenue growth, the reduction indicates an over‑valuation relative to earnings, perhaps due to heightened competition and slowing demand in the tile market.

14. Real‑Estate Infrastructure: Indus Tower – Reduce, target ₹350

One‑off events and higher seasonal expenses have dented Q4 earnings. The cut in the target price signals a belief that the company’s valuation may not be justified given its current risk profile.

15. Depository Services: National Securities Depository (NSDL) – Hold, target ₹840

The research note points to a stable business model but also highlights regulatory uncertainties that could affect fee‑income. A hold recommendation suggests confidence in the depository’s fundamentals while acknowledging potential headwinds.

Conclusion

ICICI Securities’ suite of research reports on 7 May 2026 illustrates a balanced portfolio of buy, hold, and reduce calls. The firm’s methodology appears to hinge on a combination of recent earnings performance, sectoral dynamics, and forward‑looking valuation metrics. For investors, the key takeaway is that ICICI consistently aligns its recommendations with an assessment of both immediate profitability and longer‑term growth prospects, even when the macro environment presents headwinds.