Inpex Corp. pushes profit forecast higher amid operational headwinds and regulatory scrutiny
Inpex Corporation, Japan’s largest oil and gas explorer, has announced a 5 % lift to its 2025 net‑profit forecast, raising expectations to ¥390 billion (≈ $2.6 billion). The decision follows a series of earnings releases that paint a mixed picture: while quarterly earnings per share fell 6 % to ¥58.72 from ¥62.65 in the same period last year, revenue for the quarter slipped 15 % to ¥471.78 billion. Yet, the company’s nine‑month earnings for the first three quarters of the year rose to ¥293.41 billion (¥245.18 EPS) from ¥289.42 billion (¥231.75 EPS) a year earlier, even as revenue fell 13 % to ¥1.52 trillion from ¥1.747 trillion.
The upward revision hinges on a sharp decline in operating costs, particularly at the Ichthys liquefied natural‑gas (LNG) project in Australia. Maintenance activities on the facility reduced LNG shipments, but the cost savings from lower operating expenses offset the revenue hit. Analysts now expect a net profit of ¥390 billion for the fiscal year, up from the August projection of ¥370 billion and above consensus estimates.
Despite the financial optimism, Inpex’s workforce and environmental critics remain wary. A whistle‑blower from the Ichthys onshore gas processing plant has alleged exposure to dangerous air pollutants and a culture that dismisses health‑and‑safety complaints. The company has also been embroiled in a controversial carbon‑capture proposal off the coast of Darwin, Northern Territory, which climate advocates claim could become the world’s largest “dumping ground” for CO₂.
Market reaction to the earnings release was muted. Japan’s Nikkei index fell 1.55 % on the day of the announcement, reflecting broader concerns about Wall Street’s economic outlook and a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy following the longest federal shutdown in history. Asian stock markets also trended lower, underscoring investor unease about the global economic environment.
Inpex’s share price, trading at ¥3,175 on 13 November, sits just shy of the 52‑week high of ¥3,203, with a market capitalization of ¥3.77 trillion and a price‑earnings ratio of 8.74. The company’s ability to maintain profitability amid declining production volumes and escalating regulatory scrutiny will be closely watched by investors and industry observers alike.
