Jinko Solar’s 2025 Earnings Outlook and Market Reactions

Jinko Solar Co., Ltd. (Shanghai Stock Exchange code 688223) released its 2025 annual earnings preview on 21 January 2026, forecasting a net loss for the year that is markedly larger than the modest profit posted in 2024. The company’s board affirmed that the announcement contains no false or misleading statements and that it is fully responsible for the accuracy of the disclosed figures.

Earnings Forecast

  • Projected 2025 net profit attributable to shareholders: ‑69 billion to ‑59 billion yuan.
  • Net profit after non‑recurring items: ‑78 billion to ‑67 billion yuan.
  • Year‑on‑year change: A decline of 77 % to 167 % in quarterly profit and more than 600 % in the after‑tax figure, compared with the previous year’s +0.99 billion yuan net profit and ‑9.32 billion yuan after‑tax loss.

These figures are based on preliminary calculations by the finance department and have not yet been audited by a registered public accounting firm.

Industry Context

Jinko Solar’s outlook mirrors a broader downturn that has affected the entire photovoltaic (PV) supply chain. In the days leading up to the announcement, several leading PV manufacturers—including Tongwei, Longi Green Energy, Trina Solar, and Hanwha Q CELLS—reported significant losses. Analysts attribute the slump to a surge in installed capacity during the first five months of 2025, driven by the “136 号文” policy that encouraged pre‑installation. While the policy helped curb uncontrolled growth, it also intensified competition and squeezed margins across the sector.

Market Response

Despite the bleak earnings forecast, the stock market’s reaction has been more nuanced:

  • Domestic trading on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges saw a modest overall decline in the Hang Seng Index and the CSI 300, yet several PV‑related stocks experienced gains of over 10 %. Jinko Solar, along with SunPower, Trina Solar, and Zhonglai Co., recorded gains exceeding 10 %, reflecting investor optimism around future market recovery and potential cost‑control measures.
  • Space‑solar sentiment surged in early trading sessions, driven by commentary on commercial space initiatives. Shares of companies such as JiJia Weichuang and JiJia Weichuang 20 cm reached a 20 % limit-up. Analysts note that the space‑solar concept has attracted significant speculative interest, with investors betting on the long‑term upside of deploying solar arrays in orbit.
  • Capital flows revealed net outflows from the STAR Market on 22 January, yet several high‑growth stocks still attracted significant inflows. The overall capital environment remained volatile, with speculative interest in niche segments such as space‑solar and advanced materials offsetting broader market weakness.

Forward Outlook

While Jinko Solar’s 2025 forecast signals a deepening of the current financial winter in the PV industry, the company’s strong market cap of over 55 trillion CNY and its established position in the global supply chain may provide a cushion for a rebound. Analysts expect that cost‑management initiatives, new product launches, and potential policy adjustments could gradually restore profitability in the medium term.

Investors remain cautious, balancing the immediate earnings loss against the longer‑term prospects of both terrestrial and orbital solar markets. The company’s upcoming quarterly reports will be closely watched for indications of whether the anticipated cost reductions and market dynamics translate into improved financial performance.