JPMorgan Chase & Co.: Outlook on U.S. Treasury Durations
JPMorgan Chase & Co. reaffirmed its negative stance on U.S. Treasury durations in a strategy report released on 28 September 2026. The bank’s strategists cited the impending U.S. non‑farm payroll data and technical positioning of long‑term holdings as key factors shaping the view. While the bearish bias remains, the intensity of the short‑side stance has eased relative to the previous weeks.
Key points from the report:
- Durability of the bearish view – The bank continues to project a decline in Treasury yields, arguing that the U.S. debt‑supply dynamic and fiscal trajectory support a downward pressure on long‑term rates.
- Reduced intensity – The degree of the negative bias is less pronounced than earlier in the month, reflecting a more balanced assessment of short‑end and mid‑term yields that have realigned with underlying economic drivers.
- Technical considerations – The strategists noted that current long‑position volumes in Treasury futures and options provide a short‑term buffer, mitigating the immediate impact of any sharp yield movements.
- Economic backdrop – The outlook for non‑farm payrolls is a central component, with expectations that employment data will influence the trajectory of the yield curve, particularly the short‑ and mid‑term segments.
The statement comes amid broader market developments, including heightened volatility in corporate bond markets and a shift in emerging‑market bond allocations. JPMorgan’s emphasis on a moderated bearish stance on Treasury durations aligns with its broader risk‑management framework and reflects its view that U.S. monetary policy and fiscal policy will continue to shape the debt market environment.
