LONGi Green Energy: A Surge Fueled by Capital Inflows and Export Contracts

Longi Green Energy Technology Co. Ltd. (601012.SH) has surged past the 20‑yuan mark on October 16, 2025, after three consecutive days of gains that collectively amount to an 11.69 % rally. At 20.25 yuan per share, the stock traded 71.20 billion yuan in volume, generating a turnover of 4.70 %. The market capitalization, now at 153.456 billion yuan, reflects an almost 12 % increase from the close on October 14, when the price hovered at 19.72 yuan.

1. Institutional Buying Drives the Upswing

The rally is not a mere market anomaly; it is the product of concentrated, large‑scale institutional capital. On October 14, the Shanghai Stock Exchange recorded a net outflow of 106 billion yuan of “main‑stream” money. Despite this overall exodus, Longi attracted 15.27 billion yuan of net inflows, making it the top recipient in that category. The same day, the fund manager of East Vision Capital, which oversees a portfolio of seven funds, accumulated 3.6219 million shares, realizing a profit of 76.78 million yuan. These figures demonstrate a clear confidence in Longi’s valuation relative to its peers, even as the broader market turns bearish.

2. Export Orders Reinforce Fundamentals

A key driver of Longi’s valuation is the firm’s export pipeline. On September 28, the company secured five overseas module orders totaling 1.787 GW, covering Australia, the United States, and Romania. The orders were signed in the wake of the Ministry of Commerce and Customs announcing new export controls on hard‑materials, rare‑earth equipment, and lithium‑battery anodes, slated to take effect on November 8. By positioning itself as a key supplier of silicon wafers and cells for these high‑tech applications, Longi is poised to benefit from the tightened global supply chain and the resultant premium pricing.

3. Sector Context: A Solar‑Focused Rally Amid Broader Market Weakness

The solar sector is experiencing a clear rebound, with the photovoltaic ETF (159857) peaking at a 6 % gain before settling at 1.66 % during the session. Longi is one of the ETF’s leading components, along with Tianhe Power and Jingdong Technology, all of which benefited from the same supply‑side narrative. Meanwhile, the broader market has suffered a 4 % decline in the ChiNext and 2.5 % in the Shenzhen component, reflecting a shift away from high‑beta semiconductor and chip names toward more defensively positioned renewable‑energy stalwarts.

4. Valuation Warnings

Longi’s price‑earnings ratio stands at –22.94, a reflection of its current net loss. The stock’s valuation is therefore heavily reliant on expectations of future earnings turnaround rather than historical profitability. Analysts note that the company’s revenue composition—93.51 % from photovoltaic product sales—makes it sensitive to macroeconomic cycles and policy shifts. A sudden slowdown in global solar demand could quickly erode the gains that investors are banking on.

5. Bottom‑Line Assessment

Longi Green Energy’s recent performance is driven by a confluence of factors: aggressive institutional buying, a robust export order book, and a sector‑wide rally in photovoltaics. However, the company’s negative earnings and the inherent cyclicality of the solar market pose significant risks. Investors should weigh the short‑term momentum against the long‑term structural challenges of a sector that is still subject to policy volatility and raw‑material price swings. The story is far from finished; the next few weeks will reveal whether Longi can sustain its upside or if the market will correct a speculative bubble.