MSCI Emerging Markets Index Outlook: Recent Developments and Strategic Implications

The MSCI Emerging Markets index, which closed at 1,389.45 on 4 December 2025, sits well below its 52‑week high of 1,416.39 reached on 28 October, yet remains markedly higher than the low of 982.57 recorded in early April. The index’s trajectory has attracted significant attention from both passive and actively managed vehicle issuers, as well as from institutional investors looking to position themselves for the next phase of growth in the region.

1. Passive Vehicle Performance and Fund‑Level Updates

  • Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets Swap II UCITS ETF (USD Acc) released its net asset value (NAV) on 8 December 2025, reinforcing the continued liquidity and valuation stability of its underlying holdings. The issuer’s statement underscored that the NAV figures are solely the responsibility of Amundi, reflecting the robustness of its reporting framework.
  • Amundi Core MSCI Emerging Markets Swap UCITS ETF (Dist) also disclosed its NAV on 5 December 2025. The distribution‑style vehicle confirms the ongoing demand for income‑oriented exposure to emerging‑market equity markets, even as the index remains in a consolidation phase after a brief rally earlier this year.

These NAV releases signal that Amundi’s flagship ETFs maintain healthy asset levels and continue to provide investors with low‑cost, diversified exposure to the MSCI Emerging Markets universe.

2. Fund Terminations and Strategic Realignment

Global X announced the termination of three of its MSCI‑based ETFs effective 17 February 2026, including the Global X Enhanced MSCI Emerging Markets Index ETF (EMML). The decision aligns with a broader strategy to streamline the product suite and focus on higher‑performing funds. The closure of EMML will likely redirect capital toward Global X’s remaining offerings, such as the Global X Industry 4.0 Index ETF (FOUR) and the Global X Enhanced MSCI EAFE Index ETF (EAFL), both listed on Cboe Canada and Toronto Stock Exchange respectively.

This move reflects a broader industry trend where providers reassess the sustainability of niche ETFs amid shifting investor preferences and regulatory pressures.

3. Emerging‑Market Exposure in Emerging Markets

The Satrix Collective Investment Scheme has expanded its product line by listing additional Satrix MSCI Emerging Markets Feeder Portfolio (STXEMG) securities. The feeder’s listing on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the North American Securities Exchange (NSX) broadens access for investors in South Africa and Canada, capitalising on the index’s upward momentum.

The feeder’s structure, which tracks the MSCI Emerging Markets index through a structured product, offers a cost‑effective avenue for institutional investors seeking to maintain or increase their EM exposure without the complexities of direct index fund management.

4. Global Macro Outlook and Thematic Themes

Global X’s commentary from Greece, authored by Malcolm Dorson, paints an optimistic picture for emerging markets in 2026. The analyst cites a weakening dollar, increased liquidity, and the re‑emergence of growth drivers such as infrastructure and consumer expansion in high‑income emerging economies. He projects a multi‑year rally, suggesting that the current consolidation is temporary and that the index is positioned to rebound as global risk sentiment improves.

This thematic view dovetails with observations from Yardeni Research, which has begun to shift its allocation away from the “Seven Giants” of U.S. technology and toward broader market sectors, including finance and industrials. While this shift is focused on the S&P 500, it indirectly benefits the MSCI Emerging Markets index by signalling a broader rebalancing of global equity portfolios that may increase demand for emerging‑market stocks.

5. Implications for Investors

  1. Liquidity and Cost Efficiency – The continued issuance of NAVs for Amundi’s ETFs and the expansion of Satrix’s feeder portfolio underscore the liquidity and cost advantages of passive exposure.
  2. Strategic Allocation Adjustments – Global X’s fund closures and re‑allocation of capital to higher‑potential products suggest a tightening of focus on quality, which may drive premium pricing for the remaining funds.
  3. Macro‑Driven Momentum – Analyst forecasts of a sustained rally in emerging markets, coupled with a weaker dollar and higher liquidity, point to an attractive risk‑reward profile for investors willing to navigate the current volatility.

6. Forward‑Looking Perspective

Given the index’s proximity to its 52‑week high and the positive sentiment from major asset‑management houses, the MSCI Emerging Markets index is poised for a potential breakout as global risk appetite recovers. Investors should monitor the following:

  • NAV Performance of leading ETFs as a barometer for inflows and outflows.
  • Regulatory Developments affecting passive vehicles in key jurisdictions (e.g., Switzerland’s potential investment screening).
  • Macroeconomic Indicators such as dollar strength, liquidity measures, and inflation trends that could accelerate or dampen the rally.

In sum, the confluence of product developments, macro‑economic optimism, and strategic realignment across major ETF providers sets the stage for a compelling period of growth for the MSCI Emerging Markets index.