NEL ASA Faces a Storm of Red Numbers

The latest earnings release from NEL ASA has turned a once‑promising hydrogen juggernaut into a cautionary tale for investors. The Oslo‑listed company, whose business model hinges on producing, storing and distributing hydrogen from renewable sources, delivered a fourth‑quarter profit‑per‑share of –0.47 NOK and a total revenue of 330 million NOK. This stark contraction follows a broader trend of declining sales and sustained losses that have now eclipsed the company’s market cap of 3.73 billion NOK.

1. Revenue Decline and EBITDA in the Red

NEL’s reported sales of 330 million NOK in Q4 2025 represent a sharp decline from previous periods and fall short of analysts’ expectations, as noted in the Finanzen and Börse‑Express reports. The company’s EBITDA also slipped into negative territory, confirming that cost pressures are outweighing any gains from its hydrogen solutions portfolio. The numbers were delivered with a tone of “continued losses” and “revenue under pressure,” signalling that the firm’s cash burn is now unsustainable without a dramatic turnaround.

2. Cavendish Hydrogen’s Amplified Losses

NEL’s subsidiary, Cavendish Hydrogen, has been a key driver of the parent’s financial woes. In Q4 2025, Cavendish posted a larger loss than its predecessor period, further denting investor confidence. The Finanzen articles repeatedly highlight that Cavendish’s operating results are now a “larger negative figure,” reinforcing the narrative that the fueling‑station segment is not delivering the promised high‑margin returns.

3. Market Reaction and Outlook

With the share price hovering at 2.03 NOK—well below the 52‑week low of 1.947 NOK—the market’s reaction has been one of growing skepticism. Analysts are predicting a further slide, citing the company’s –7.77 price‑to‑earnings ratio, which underscores the negative earnings environment. The forthcoming 2025 annual report, due on 26 February 2026, will be the decisive moment: if NEL fails to present a credible path to profitability, the stock will likely spiral towards a “Können wir das noch retten?” scenario, as echoed by Börse‑Express.

4. Strategic Implications

NEL’s core mission—building a green hydrogen economy—has become increasingly difficult to justify when the financial statements reveal persistent red numbers. The company’s three‑segment structure (Hydrogen Fueling, Hydrogen Solutions, Hydrogen Electrolyser) has not translated into a robust balance sheet. Investors must ask whether the current strategy is merely a green veneer or a genuinely scalable business model. The recent “strategic realignment” mentioned in Börse‑Express offers little reassurance; without a tangible turnaround plan, the company risks becoming a textbook case of hype‑driven overvaluation.

5. Conclusion

NEL ASA’s forthcoming financial disclosures are not simply a routine corporate event—they are a litmus test for the hydrogen sector’s viability in Norway’s market. The confluence of declining sales, mounting losses in both the parent and its Cavendish subsidiary, and a teetering share price paints a bleak picture. Unless NEL can reverse its downward trajectory and deliver a credible profit model, the company’s future remains uncertain, and investors may soon face a stark reality: the green hydrogen narrative may still be in its infancy, and the cost of that infancy is high.