OPAL Fuels Inc. Reports Modest Revenue Decline Amid Strong RNG Production Growth

OPAL Fuels Inc. (Nasdaq: OPAL) released its third‑quarter 2025 earnings on November 7, 2025, delivering a mixed performance that left the market questioning the durability of its growth trajectory.

Revenue and Profitability

  • Revenue: $83.4 million, a 1 % decline YoY, missing consensus estimates by $7.99 million.
  • Net Income: $11.4 million, down from $17.1 million in the same period last year, reflecting a higher cost structure and the impact of a lower D‑3 Renewable Identification Number (RIN) price environment.
  • GAAP EPS: $0.05, falling short of expectations by $0.38.

Despite the revenue dip, the company’s operating performance largely aligns with guidance. The earnings release emphasized that the quarter’s results were “in line with expectations,” indicating that management maintains confidence in the fiscal year outlook.

Renewable Natural Gas (RNG) Production

RNG production remains a key driver of OPAL’s value proposition:

  • Q3 production up 8 % sequentially and 30 % YoY compared to Q3 2024.
  • The Atlantic RNG Project was brought online in early October, reinforcing the company’s production capacity.
  • The CMS RNG Project in North Carolina entered construction, slated to add 1.0 million MMBtu of annual capacity. This project is expected to further strengthen OPAL’s vertically integrated supply chain.

Capital Allocation and Capital Expenditure

The company has maintained a disciplined capital allocation strategy:

  • Construction of the CMS RNG Project represents a significant capital outlay, but management underscores that the project’s timeline aligns with the broader growth strategy.
  • No material changes in debt or equity structure were reported, and the firm continues to manage its balance sheet prudently.

Stock Market Reaction

  • OPAL shares fell 6.48 % to $2.02 on the day of the earnings announcement, despite the robust RNG growth narrative.
  • The price decline reflects market concerns about earnings misses and the modest revenue contraction, as well as a broader sensitivity to RIN price volatility.

Forward‑Looking Guidance

  • Management reiterated that it expects full‑year results to remain within the 2025 guidance range, even in a challenging RIN pricing environment.
  • The company remains committed to executing strategic growth initiatives, particularly the expansion of its RNG portfolio through new projects such as CMS.

Conclusion

OPAL Fuels’ third‑quarter results highlight a company that is still expanding its RNG footprint while navigating a competitive and price‑sensitive market. The modest revenue decline and earnings miss underscore the need for disciplined cost management, yet the substantial production gains and new project construction signal that OPAL is well positioned to capture further upside as the renewable fuels sector matures.