USD/INR dynamics on 10 Feb 2026

The Indian rupee closed at 90.56 per U.S. dollar, a modest gain of 10 paise from the previous session. The move was driven by two intertwined forces that have been shaping the currency market in the first week of February.

1. The trade‑deal paradox

India’s new trade framework with Washington—announced on Monday—was widely interpreted as a victory for the rupee. The headline of the Deccan Herald piece, “USD to INR Trade Deal: A Steep Price for Tariff Wins,” underscores a sharp cost to India: the agreement eases tariffs on Indian exports, but in return the U.S. secures preferential access to Indian goods. While the immediate impact on the currency was positive, the think.ing article highlights that the broader market reaction remains skeptical. Large domestic firms, eager to take advantage of lower U.S. tariffs, are simultaneously buying dollars to finance imports, exerting downward pressure on the rupee. The BRECORDER report on 10 Feb at 07:06 h captures this precisely, noting that “heavy dollar demand from large Indian firms capped the currency’s rise.”

In short, the trade deal is a double‑edged sword: it lifts the rupee on the back of a favourable policy headline, yet the very firms that benefit are also draining the rupee’s value by purchasing dollars.

2. Dollar weakness and domestic equity support

The U.S. dollar has been in retreat since the start of the year. FXStreet’s German‑language coverage points out that the dollar has lost ground due to “broad‑based weakness in the U.S. dollar” and a decline in dollar‑appetite from corporates. The FX Talking piece from think.ing reinforces this theme, citing “uncertainties about future Fed policy” and a shift of capital to pro‑cyclical currencies such as the euro. In India, domestic equities have been buoyant, providing a safe haven that attracted portfolio inflows. The BRECORDER story at 10:50 h notes that “modest inflows” helped shore up the rupee, while the fxstreet article reports a net foreign purchase of roughly 250 million USD on Monday, further tightening the currency.

The rupee’s 9‑paise uptick to 90.57 in the provisional market (The Hindu Business Line, 10 Feb 10:54 h) and its 10‑paise climb to 90.56 in the final trade (News18, 10 Feb 15:15 h) are both reflections of this confluence of dollar weakness and equity‑driven inflows.

3. Technical backdrop

With the rupee trading near its 52‑week low of 72.97 (May 4, 2025) and a high of 92.33 (Jan 27, 2026), the currency is currently in an upward swing. The latest close at 90.56 lies well above the 2026‑02‑08 close of 90.588, indicating a consolidation rather than a breakout. Traders will watch the 90.60 level closely: a breach could signal a new rally, whereas a retreat might confirm a reversal.

Takeaway

The rupee’s modest gain on 10 Feb is the result of a fragile trade‑deal promise and a weak U.S. dollar, both tempered by the counter‑vigor of domestic corporate dollar buying. Market participants should remain wary: the currency’s trajectory will hinge on whether the trade framework delivers long‑term benefits for India or merely offers a temporary boost that is quickly eroded by the very firms it intends to support.