Sinch AB – Investor Update
Earnings and EBITDA Outlook
Sinch reported an adjusted EBITDA of 933 million SEK for the fourth quarter of 2025, in line with the consensus estimate of 935 million SEK. The company also confirmed a forecast of 930 million SEK in adjusted EBITDA for the same period, reinforcing the view that operating profitability is stable.
The quarterly revenue was slightly below market expectations, but management indicated that the short‑fall is attributable to lower sales in the fourth quarter rather than a structural weakness. The company’s focus on cloud‑based communication platforms—personalized messaging, number masking, video calling and voicemail—remains unchanged.
Guidance on Gross Result Growth
During the first half of 2026, Sinch’s CEO highlighted expected organic growth in the gross result. The company anticipates continued expansion in the Americas and API segments, which should help support the gross margin profile in the upcoming year.
Shareholder Activity
- Voleon Capital Management has become a new public shareholder, holding a 0.5 % stake in Sinch.
- The share price experienced a 2–4 % pullback on the day following the earnings release, reflecting market rotation after the announcement.
Analyst Recommendations and Target Prices
| Analyst | Recommendation | Target Price |
|---|---|---|
| Nordea | Hold (Buy) | 38 SEK |
| Handelsbanken | Buy | 38 SEK |
| DNB Carnegie | Buy | 39 SEK |
| SEB | Buy (Hold) | 29 SEK |
| ABG Sundal Collier | – | – |
All five analysts reiterated a buy stance, though target prices vary. The consensus target price across the banks ranges from 29 SEK to 39 SEK, reflecting differing views on the upside potential of the cloud communication platform sector.
Market Context
- Sinch’s market capitalization is ≈ 15.89 billion SEK.
- The stock trades within a 52‑week range of 15.695 SEK to 36.99 SEK, with the most recent close at 20.14 SEK.
- The price‑earnings ratio is negative (-46.56), a consequence of the company’s ongoing investment cycle and modest profitability.
Key Takeaways
- Earnings stability – Adjusted EBITDA remains close to analyst expectations, signalling operational consistency.
- Positive growth outlook – Management expects continued gross‑result expansion, especially in the Americas and API markets.
- Analyst consensus – All major banks maintain a buy recommendation, with target prices ranging between 29 SEK and 39 SEK.
- Shareholder dynamics – New public stake by Voleon Capital and a modest post‑earnings pullback.
Investors should monitor the company’s quarterly results for any deviations from the projected EBITDA and assess how the guidance for gross‑result growth aligns with broader market expectations for the cloud communications sector.
