Temple & Webster Group Ltd: Market Response to FY25 Results and Analyst Activity

Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) reported a revenue increase of $601 million for the fiscal year 2025, representing an 18 % rise from the period July 1 to November 20, 2025. The company reaffirmed its full‑year 2026 guidance, citing positive trends in leading indicators and customer cohort performance.

Despite the revenue growth, the stock experienced a significant decline. On 25 November 2025, the share price fell as much as 33 % in Sydney trading, the steepest drop since 2016. The decline was attributed to a slowdown in sales growth, prompting a reassessment of the company’s valuation by market analysts.

Analyst Ratings and Targets

  • Jefferies upgraded TPW to a Buy recommendation on 26 November 2025, acknowledging the revenue surge while noting a slowdown in growth momentum.
  • UBS moved the rating from Sell to Neutral on 28 November 2025 and simultaneously reduced its price target, reflecting a more cautious outlook.
  • Fool Australia discussed whether the recent crash justified a purchase decision on 27 November 2025, suggesting that the price decline could present an entry point for long‑term investors.

Shareholder Activity

  • A director’s interest notice was filed on 28 November 2025, indicating a change in the director’s holdings.
  • On 26 November 2025, a substantial holder notification indicated a new substantial shareholder, followed by a subsequent notice on 27 November 2025 that the holder ceased to be substantial.
  • An update regarding a daily buy‑back programme was announced on 28 November 2025, signalling the company’s intent to return capital to shareholders.

Market Context

The Australian stock market closed lower on 28 November 2025, with Temple & Webster among the top gainers despite the intra‑day slide. The broader index showed modest gains over the week and year‑to‑date, but individual equities such as Eagers Automotive and Suncorp Group experienced sharp falls.

Financial Snapshot (as of 26 November 2025)

  • Market Capitalisation: AUD 1.71 billion
  • Price‑to‑Earnings Ratio: 157.54
  • 52‑Week High: AUD 29.06 (13 August 2025)
  • 52‑Week Low: AUD 11.755 (1 December 2024)
  • Closing Price (26 Nov 2025): AUD 14.45

The company remains an online shopping club focused on furniture, homewares, and lifestyle products within Australia. Its performance will continue to be monitored closely as it navigates the current market volatility and adjusts its strategic initiatives to sustain growth.