2025‑10‑16: TFC’s Strategic Position Amid a Resurgent Light‑Module Ecosystem

The day’s market dynamics—A‑shares rallying to a fleeting 2‑trillion‑yuan turnover before retreating—revealed a clear pivot toward the high‑growth light‑module segment. For TFC, a specialist in fiber‑optical connectivity, this shift is not merely a background trend; it is a crucible in which its competitive relevance will be tested and potentially solidified.

1. Light‑Module Rally and TFC’s Core Competency

The light‑module “CPO” concept re‑emerged with vigor on 16 October. Mid‑day charts showed dominant names—中际旭创, 新易盛, 天孚通信—surging in the green, a pattern mirrored by TFC’s own share price, which closed at 150.75 CNY, comfortably above its 52‑week low yet well below the 225‑point peak. Analysts at 华泰证券 forecasted a 167 % rise in Q3 net profit for the light‑module sector, driven by projected demand for 800 G modules overseas. TFC’s portfolio, encompassing Zirconia ceramic sleeves, fiber stubs, and TOSA/ROSA receptacle plugs, positions it to benefit from this uptrend, especially as data‑center and cloud‑computing deployments accelerate.

2. Capital Inflows into the Communications Domain

In the broader communication sector, 8.95 billion CNY of institutional capital flowed in on the day. The most substantial inflows favored 中兴通讯 (13.27 billion CNY), followed by 中际旭创 (6.72 billion CNY) and 新易盛 (2.76 billion CNY). While TFC did not dominate the list, its inclusion among the 43 “net‑inflow” stocks indicates that market participants view it as a viable participant in the expanding light‑module value chain. Given its market cap of roughly 117 billion CNY and a P/E of 73.63, TFC’s valuation appears stretched, yet the sector‑wide momentum could justify a reevaluation.

3. The Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Sales

A critical concern for TFC’s international revenue stream is the evolving U.S. tariff regime. The company’s management, in a Q4 2024 brief, disclosed that North‑American sales represented merely 2.35 % of total revenue (7649 万元). Even under a hypothetical 10 % tariff hike, the net blow would be less than 0.25 % of TFC’s total sales, a figure the company characterizes as “manageable and limited.” This modest exposure underscores TFC’s heavy reliance on domestic and regional orders—an advantageous buffer against global trade volatility.

4. Strategic Investment in CPO Capabilities

TFC has been proactive in deploying CPO‑aligned products. Management reiterated its early entry into the CPO arena and the ongoing iteration of related technologies. Although the firm refrained from disclosing specific order book figures, the statement signals a deliberate investment in a market that, according to industry observers, is poised for exponential growth as AI and cloud services expand. The alignment of TFC’s R&D pipeline with this trend should translate into incremental revenue streams once production ramps up.

5. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook

The market’s reaction to the light‑module rally was swift: TFC’s shares edged higher, buoyed by the positive sentiment that reverberated across the sector. Yet the overall market caution—evidenced by the dip in total turnover—remains a caveat. For investors, the question is whether TFC’s current P/E can be justified by the projected upside from its CPO and light‑module initiatives, or whether the valuation remains overextended in a market that is still consolidating.

In summary, TFC stands at an inflection point: a robust domestic presence, a growing footprint in the light‑module supply chain, and a measured exposure to U.S. tariff risk. The next quarter will be decisive, as production capacity expands and the AI‑driven data‑center boom materializes. Those who can align TFC’s operational strengths with the sector’s momentum will likely reap the rewards; those who fail to do so risk being left behind in a rapidly evolving industry.