TMC The Metals Company Inc. Shares Surge on China Rare‑Earth Export Restrictions

The share price of TMC The Metals Company Inc. (NASDAQ:TMC) advanced sharply on Monday, 13 October 2025, following the announcement by China’s Ministry of Commerce that foreign suppliers must obtain approval to export certain products containing rare‑earth materials. The policy has intensified scrutiny on the global supply chain for critical battery metals, positioning TMC—an electric‑vehicle battery metal producer based in Vancouver—as a beneficiary of the tightening restrictions.

Market Reaction

  • Opening: TMC opened the day at $10.69, the same price as the most recent close, reflecting a neutral market sentiment at market open.
  • Mid‑Day: Within the first trading hour, the stock rallied, closing at $11.35, its highest level in the past 52 weeks, marking a 6.6 % gain from the previous close.
  • Volume: Trading volume surged to 1.8 million shares, exceeding the 30‑day average by 35 %. This volume spike indicates strong institutional interest and a widening of the trading base.

Drivers of the Rally

  1. China’s Export Approval Requirement

    • The policy targets “products containing rare‑earth materials,” a category that includes many of the metallic by‑products TMC extracts from polymetallic rocks.
    • The restriction is expected to reduce China’s outbound supply of critical metals, tightening global availability and creating a favorable environment for alternative suppliers such as TMC.

  2. Strategic Positioning of TMC

    • TMC’s operations focus on converting polymetallic ore into high‑purity metals suitable for battery storage and electric‑vehicle propulsion.
    • The company’s supply chain is diversified across North America, South America, and Asia, mitigating exposure to any single geopolitical risk.
    • With a market capitalization of $2.89 billion, TMC’s valuation is robust relative to its earnings, which remain negative, as reflected by a P/E ratio of –27.4.

  3. Investor Sentiment and Analyst Coverage

    • Several analysts on the Nasdaq have raised their price targets for TMC, citing the company’s strong pipeline and growing demand for battery metals amid the global shift toward electrification.
    • Positive sentiment was reinforced by coverage from The Motley Fool and Benzinga, which highlighted the company’s potential to capture market share as China tightens its export controls.

Forward‑Looking Assessment

  • Supply Chain Resilience: TMC’s commitment to developing proprietary processing technology for polymetallic rocks positions it to scale production efficiently, potentially reducing cost structures relative to competitors.
  • Regulatory Outlook: While China’s policy introduces uncertainty, it also creates a strategic advantage for non‑Chinese suppliers. TMC’s existing relationships with OEMs and battery manufacturers suggest it is well‑placed to capitalize on this shift.
  • Financial Trajectory: The company’s current negative earnings underscore the importance of maintaining cash flow discipline. However, the anticipated increase in demand for battery metals and potential for higher margins could offset profitability challenges over the next 12 months.

Conclusion

TMC The Metals Company Inc. is riding a wave of market optimism triggered by China’s new export restrictions on rare‑earth‑containing products. The stock’s recent surge reflects investor confidence that the company’s strategic positioning and operational capabilities will translate into increased market share in the growing battery‑metal sector. For investors monitoring the EV supply chain, TMC’s performance on 13 October serves as a bellwether for the broader industry’s response to geopolitical developments in China.