Tullow Oil’s Shares Slam to Record Low Amid Debt‑Refinancing and Production Outlook Uncertainty
Tullow Oil PLC, the London‑listed independent oil explorer, saw its shares fall to a record low on Friday, 21 November 2025, as the company announced a higher net‑debt forecast and confirmed that production for 2025 will likely sit at the lower end of its guidance range. The stock, which has traded as low as 8 pence in October, slumped 35 % to 5.55 pence – the lowest price since the company began trading in 1989.
Rising Net Debt and Credit‑Market Negotiations
In a trading update released early on Friday, Tullow raised its year‑end net‑debt forecast to US$1.2 billion from the previous US$1.1 billion estimate. The company said it was engaging with a number of creditors – including bondholders and commodity traders – on a range of alternative options. “We are progressing alternative options with certain of its creditors, including an amend and extend exercise and other forms of liability‑management transactions,” the statement read.
The debt‑refinancing effort comes at a time when the company’s cash‑generation capability is under pressure. With a price‑earnings ratio of –1.24 and a 52‑week low of 8 pence, the market views the firm as a high‑risk play, even as it remains a key player in Ghana, Gabon and Côte d’Ivoire.
Production Outlook Slips to the Bottom of the Guidance Range
Tullow’s 2025 production forecast was revised to the lower end of its 40 000–45 000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) range. The company cautioned that natural declines in existing wells could push output to 34 000–42 000 boepd. The guidance was issued alongside an announcement that the company was exploring funding options with some of its creditors, given the risks associated with its business performance and market conditions.
The lower production outlook is a significant factor in the steep decline in share price. Investors have reacted to the possibility that the company may be unable to maintain the higher production levels it had previously targeted, and the refinancing talks have introduced uncertainty about the company’s ability to service its debt.
Market Reaction and Broader Context
London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.8 % on the day, as the market absorbed news of AI‑valuation concerns and US growth worries. The broader energy sector has also felt pressure, with oil price volatility and geopolitical uncertainties feeding into a cautious sentiment. In this environment, Tullow’s announcement of a higher net‑debt forecast and a production shortfall was seen as a double blow, amplifying the sell‑off.
Key Takeaways
| Item | Detail |
|---|---|
| Share price at record low | 5.55 pence (down 35 % from the previous close) |
| Net debt forecast | US$1.2 billion (up from US$1.1 billion) |
| 2025 production guidance | 34 000–42 000 boepd (lower end of 40 000–45 000 boepd range) |
| Markets | London Stock Exchange, traded in GBX |
| Last close (19 Nov 2025) | 8.53 pence |
| 52‑week range | 8 – 27.98 pence |
The day’s events underscore the fragility of the company’s financial position and the heightened risk of further volatility. Investors will be watching closely for developments in Tullow’s refinancing talks and for any signs that production levels can be maintained or improved.
