New Zealand Dollar/US Dollar – Market Overview

• Current level: 0.59894 (IDEAL PRO close, 16 Sept 2025)
• Year‑to‑date range: 0.54907 – 0.63766

1. Impact of U.S. Monetary Policy

The U.S. Federal Reserve reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 4.00 – 4.25 % range, signalling that the decline in employment data outweighs inflation concerns. The rate cut has reinforced the dollar, with the USD gaining on a recovery after the FOMC meeting.

2. New Zealand Economic Data

New Zealand released second‑quarter GDP figures that fell more than expected, indicating a contraction of the economy. The weaker-than‑predicted GDP has weakened the NZD against the USD. Analysts note that the 0.5900 level is a key confluence point; a break below this mark would signal a further decline for the NZD.

3. Technical Analysis

• Support: 0.5951 (nine‑day EMA).
• Resistance: 0.6000 – 0.6010 (upper bound of the rising channel).
• The 14‑day RSI remains above 50, supporting a bullish bias, but the recent sell‑side pressure has pushed the pair below 0.5950.

4. Market Sentiment

• Asia‑Pacific equity markets show mixed performance: Tokyo and Seoul hit record highs, while Shanghai and Hong Kong lagged.
• In Asia‑Pacific bond markets, the dollar has strengthened in anticipation of further Fed cuts.

5. Forecast Outlook

Short‑term: The NZD/USD pair may test the 0.5900 support before a possible rebound.
Medium‑term: If the USD continues to benefit from Fed policy, the pair could target the 0.6000 level, with a potential upper boundary near 0.6010.

Summary
The combination of a U.S. rate cut, weak New Zealand GDP data, and technical confluence around the 0.5900 level places downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair. Market participants are closely monitoring the 0.6000 benchmark for a potential reversal.