Soybean Market Update – 17 November 2025

Current Trading Levels

  • Close price (CME, 13 November 2025): USD 11.13 per bushel
  • 52‑week high (13 November 2025): USD 11.39 per bushel
  • 52‑week low (18 December 2024): USD 9.45 per bushel

The latest settlement on the CME reflects a modest decline from the most recent peak, positioning the contract within the upper quartile of its year‑long range.

China–United States Soybean Trade Developments

On 17 November 2025 the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a statement addressing reports that the United States had secured agreements for China to purchase approximately 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans in November and December, and to commit to a minimum purchase of 25 million tons per year for the next three years. Ministerial spokesperson He Yadong confirmed that the ministry had received the query, but the statement did not confirm any new contractual arrangements.

These comments arrive amid a broader context of uncertainty about China’s actual soybean procurement volumes. The Chinese government’s brief was issued shortly after a series of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) releases that cast doubt on the feasibility of the purchase levels that had been publicized by former President Donald Trump during a high‑profile meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

USDA Data and Market Implications

Several U.S. news outlets, including The Twin Cities and WBOC, reported that the latest USDA data do not support the earlier claims of large Chinese purchases. The data suggest that China’s soybean imports have not reached the levels previously projected, and that the United States may need to adjust its export strategies accordingly.

The discrepancy between the Chinese ministry’s response and the USDA findings has implications for market sentiment. Traders observing the CME have noted a slight pullback from the 52‑week high, reflecting concerns that the expected demand surge from China may not materialize as anticipated.

International Commodity Activity

In related commodity markets, the Dalian Commodity Exchange reported a rise in the No. 1 soybean futures contract for January 2026 delivery. The contract closed at 4,215 yuan (≈ 13.13 USD) per tonne, up 93 yuan from the previous session. While this activity is geographically separate from the U.S. market, it signals continued interest in soybean pricing across Asia.

Conclusion

The soybean market remains sensitive to geopolitical developments between the United States and China. Current U.S. pricing sits near the upper end of its annual range, yet the recent USDA data and Chinese ministry statements suggest that the anticipated surge in Chinese purchases may be less than previously reported. Market participants will likely monitor forthcoming trade data and official statements for further clarification.