HelloFresh SE: UBS Projects a Strong Upside Amid a Challenging Transition

The German meal‑kit provider HelloFresh SE, listed on Xetra and trading at €5.75 as of 27 January 2026, has become a focal point for European equity analysts. Despite the company’s current transition phase, two major financial institutions—UBS and CNBC—have expressed confidence in the long‑term potential of the business, setting bullish price targets that imply a significant upside.

UBS Highlights the Company’s Long‑Term Growth Prospects

In a January 26 note, UBS identified HelloFresh as the first of five European stocks with a projected upside of 50 % or more. Analyst Jo Barnet‑Lamb specifically noted the company’s “tough transition period,” but argued that a focus on cost control and the underlying growth trajectory would eventually translate into stronger earnings. The bank’s target price of €10.8 for HelloFresh represents a 90 % increase from the closing price on the previous trading day, translating to an implied upside of 94 % according to UBS’s own calculations.

The optimism stems from several structural factors:

  • Global footprint – HelloFresh serves customers worldwide, leveraging its robust online platform and logistics network.
  • Subscription model – The recurring revenue stream from weekly meal boxes provides a predictable cash flow base that can absorb short‑term volatility.
  • Diversified product range – Beyond core meal kits, the company offers ancillary products such as ice packs, plastic and meat packaging, and insulation materials, providing additional revenue channels.

UBS’s bullish stance contrasts with its earlier neutral position, suggesting that recent developments—perhaps improved margin control or strategic partnerships—have shifted the risk‑reward profile in the company’s favor.

CNBC Echoes UBS’s Optimism

A CNBC article published on 27 January 2026 reiterates the bank’s viewpoint. It underscores that Europe’s earnings landscape is “finally improving in a meaningful way,” citing a firmer and more dependable earnings backdrop. Within this context, HelloFresh is highlighted as a “food delivery company that has cost control at its core.” The piece acknowledges the company’s “unknowns” but maintains that growth is on the horizon, reinforcing the notion that a disciplined cost structure can yield sustainable profitability.

Market Context and Valuation

The broader European equity market, as reflected in the SDAX index, has been showing incremental gains, rising 5.79 % year‑to‑date. Within the SDAX, HelloFresh’s performance is not directly tracked, but the sector’s positive momentum suggests that consumer staples and internet retail segments are receiving renewed investor interest.

At its current valuation, HelloFresh trades at a price‑to‑earnings ratio of –4.76, indicating that earnings are negative—typical for a growth‑stage company investing heavily in customer acquisition and infrastructure. Nevertheless, the market cap of approximately €813 million positions HelloFresh as a mid‑cap player with significant scale, especially when compared to its 52‑week high of €13.62 and low of €5.196.

Forward‑looking Outlook

UBS’s target price of €10.8, coupled with the company’s strategic initiatives and an improving European earnings environment, projects a nearly 100 % upside over the current level. Should HelloFresh successfully navigate its transition phase, capitalize on cost efficiencies, and sustain its subscription growth, the valuation could justify the optimistic forecast.

Investors monitoring the European market should therefore consider HelloFresh SE not merely as a short‑term play but as a long‑term opportunity, pending the company’s ability to convert its extensive customer base into profitable, recurring revenue streams.