UOB Kay Hian Securities: A Portfolio of Contrasting Forecasts

UOB Kay Hian Securities (Thailand) Public Company Limited, listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand, continues to wield influence over market sentiment with a series of research reports that paint a mixed picture of the company’s own outlook and the broader Asian market. The brokerage’s recent commentary on Tencent, Anta Sports, China Overseas and other peers illustrates how analysts navigate a landscape where earnings expectations are volatile and geopolitical factors loom large.

1. Tencent 2025 Q4 Revenue Surge – A Bullish Outlook

On 22 January 2026, UOB Kay Hian issued a bullish note on Tencent’s fourth‑quarter 2025 revenue, forecasting a 13 % year‑over‑year increase. The report retains a Buy rating, implying that the broker believes Tencent’s underlying growth engine will remain robust enough to absorb any headwinds that may arise from regulatory scrutiny or market saturation. For investors, this signals that UOB Kay Hian sees a favorable balance sheet and a resilient revenue stream in the Chinese tech giant, and is confident enough to maintain an optimistic stance.

Key Takeaway: A 13 % revenue rise is not trivial; it indicates that Tencent’s core business is still expanding at a pace that can justify the current valuation multiples.

2. Anta Sports – Profit Margin Pressure and a Tightened Target

The same day, the broker issued a starkly different view on Anta Sports. Anta’s operating profit margin is projected to face significant pressure in 2026, prompting UOB Kay Hian to cut its target price to THB 103.4. This move underscores how sensitive the sports‑apparel sector is to cost inflation, supply‑chain disruptions and intensifying competition from international brands.

Key Takeaway: A tightened target price reflects the broker’s belief that Anta’s earnings will be eroded, compelling investors to adjust their expectations downward.

3. China Overseas – A Grim Forecast for Core Net Profit

In a more comprehensive analysis, UOB Kay Hian warned that China Overseas (00688.HK) will likely see its 2025 core net profit decline, with a forecast of -0.320 % and a 2.356 % YoY drop. The brokerage attributes this erosion primarily to a falling gross‑profit margin within the property‑development arm and the impact of impairments. Despite a 33 % YoY increase in attributable land investment, the company remains under pressure, prompting the broker to cut the 2025‑2027 earnings forecasts by 14.6 %, 23.7 % and 27.4 % respectively. Consequently, the target price was reduced by 9.2 % to THB 15.14, while the rating was kept at Buy.

Key Takeaway: Even with aggressive land acquisitions, the real‑estate developer is expected to underperform, highlighting a disconnect between investment activity and profitability.

4. Market‑Wide Context – Local Equities and Real‑Estate Trends

While UOB Kay Hian’s reports focus on high‑profile names, the broader market environment is reflected in other sectors. For instance, Eco‑Shop Marketing is slated to open 81 new stores in FY26, a move that could potentially reverse the 12.7 % YoY contraction in same‑store sales growth reported in Q1FY26. Yet, the broker’s FY26 sales growth assumption remains conservative at -6 %, underscoring persistent supply‑chain issues and market softness.

In real‑estate, China Resources Land received a Buy rating from DBS on 19 January 2026, with a target of HK$34.90, reflecting a more optimistic view than UOB Kay Hian’s assessment of China Overseas. This divergence illustrates how analyst sentiment can vary sharply even within the same industry, depending on the specific company’s financials and strategic positioning.

5. A Critical Lens on UOB Kay Hian’s Methodology

UOB Kay Hian’s contrasting forecasts raise important questions about the consistency of its analytical framework. On the one hand, the brokerage maintains a Buy rating for Tencent, anticipating robust revenue growth. On the other hand, it cuts target prices for Anta and China Overseas, signalling a bearish outlook for those entities. The key difference lies in the underlying financial health and market dynamics:

  • Tencent enjoys a diversified product portfolio and a large user base, providing a cushion against regulatory risks.
  • Anta Sports operates in a highly competitive, cost‑sensitive segment where margins can be easily squeezed.
  • China Overseas is exposed to the cyclical nature of real‑estate development, where land acquisitions do not always translate into immediate profitability.

This methodological variance suggests that UOB Kay Hian’s analysts tailor their models to each company’s risk profile, rather than applying a one‑size‑fits‑all approach. However, investors must remain vigilant, as the brokerage’s forecasts are subject to rapid revision in response to macroeconomic shifts, policy changes and market sentiment.

6. Strategic Takeaways for Investors

  • Diversify: The contrasting outlooks indicate that investors should avoid overconcentration in any single sector or company.
  • Monitor Margins: Profit‑margin pressures can quickly erode valuations, as seen with Anta Sports.
  • Watch Real‑Estate Cycles: China Overseas’ forecast underscores the importance of understanding the real‑estate development cycle, where investment does not always lead to immediate profit.
  • Stay Updated on Regulatory Trends: Tencent’s forecast assumes a stable regulatory environment; any tightening could quickly alter its trajectory.

In sum, UOB Kay Hian Securities presents a nuanced picture of Asia’s financial landscape, balancing optimism for high‑growth tech firms with caution for margin‑sensitive and cyclical businesses. Investors should weigh these insights against their own risk tolerance and strategic objectives before making decisions.