Upstart Holdings Inc. Faces a Turning Tide: Q3 Results, Analyst Optimism, and Insider Selling

Upstart Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: UPST) is poised to reveal its most recent quarterly performance at the upcoming finance conference on November 4, 2025. The company’s latest data suggest a dramatic turnaround from its historically negative earnings profile, while a high‑level insider sale casts a shadow over the optimism.

Q3 2025 Performance: A Stunning Recovery

  • Profitability: Analysts estimate a $0.421 per share net income for the quarter, a stark improvement over the $‑0.070 loss reported in the same period last year.
  • Revenue Growth: The company is projected to achieve a 72.46 % increase in sales, reaching $279.6 million, versus $162.1 million in the previous year’s quarter.
  • Full‑Year Outlook: For FY 2025, analysts forecast a $1.65 per share earnings figure, compared to the $‑1.44 loss of FY 2024. Annual revenue is expected to hit $1.06 billion, a rise from the $636.5 million reported last year.

These numbers are based on aggregated analyst estimates from 11 and 10 analysts, respectively, and signal a possible shift from a loss‑making lender to a profitable platform.

Market Context: A Company in Transition

  • Stock Price and Valuation: As of October 30, 2025, UPST trades at $47.52, well below its 52‑week high of $96.43 and near its low of $31.40.
  • Market Capitalization: The company’s market cap stands at $4.57 billion.
  • Price/Earnings Ratio: With a P/E of ‑694.18, the stock remains a high‑risk, high‑reward bet, reflecting its historical volatility and the substantial accounting adjustments it has made.

Insider Selling Raises Red Flags

On October 24, 2025, Darling Scott, Upstart’s Chief Legal Officer, exercised 1,000 options and sold the shares immediately. This transaction—publicly disclosed on the day—raises questions about insider confidence. While option sales can be routine, the timing, immediately following the announcement of strong earnings guidance, could signal concerns about the company’s long‑term prospects or liquidity needs.

Analyst Consensus: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

  • Zacks and Finanzen.net provide positive earnings forecasts, suggesting a potential upside if the company’s AI‑driven lending platform truly gains traction.
  • Investor sentiment remains split, with some viewing the insider sale as a warning, while others focus on the revenue growth and return to profitability.

Bottom Line

Upstart Holdings is at a crossroads. If the company can deliver on its Q3 results and maintain momentum, the stock’s current price may be an attractive entry point for those willing to accept the inherent risk. However, the recent insider sell‑off and the company’s historically negative P/E ratio suggest caution. Investors should weigh the potential upside against the strategic uncertainties that continue to surround Upstart’s business model and capital structure.