Corn Market Developments – 17 November 2025
The commodity continues to trade in the lower end of its 52‑week range, with the CME close at $430.25 per bushel on 13 November 2025. The latest market action reflects a mix of supply concerns, export dynamics, and broader crop outlooks.
1. Export‑Driven Support
Barchart reported that on Monday, corn bulls “fighting back” as export volumes rose to a four‑year high. The surge in international demand, particularly from the European market, is supported by lower domestic production forecasts for the 2025/26 marketing year. The USDA’s recent revision of world corn production to 1,286.23 million tons – a modest decline of 0.35 million tons from the prior estimate – suggests that global supply may not keep pace with the rebound in exports.
2. Export Delays in Ukraine
According to ukragroconsult.com, export volumes from Ukraine remain low due to logistical delays. Ukraine’s share of the EU corn market is declining, with Europe accounting for nearly 60 % of November shipments. Key European importers include Italy (166,000 tons), Spain (133,000 tons), and the Netherlands (43,000 tons). The reduced Ukrainian output is expected to tighten supply further, adding pressure to price levels.
3. Supply Outlook and Yield Concerns
Barchart also noted a “double‑digit loss” in corn futures on 14 November, citing a yield shortfall that fell below analyst expectations. A higher‑than‑expected supply outlook was highlighted by Marketscreener, where corn futures sank after analysts revised the 2025/26 crop forecast downward. The combination of a projected yield cut and a tighter supply outlook contributed to the recent price decline.
4. Crop Outlook Impact on Prices
Marketscreener’s “US crop outlook” article on 17 November indicated that corn prices fell amid concerns about the overall U.S. corn crop. Lower-than‑expected yields are expected to reduce domestic supply, while the upward pressure from export demand is not yet sufficient to offset the supply deficit.
5. Broader Market Context
While corn futures were the focus, other commodities such as soybeans experienced a drop to a one‑week low on the same day, reflecting broader commodity market volatility. Additionally, Mexico’s launch of a national native corn plan and Bayer’s reported agricultural sector gains hint at regional initiatives that could influence future supply dynamics.
6. Summary of Key Influences
| Factor | Impact on Corn | Current Status |
|---|---|---|
| Export demand surge | Price support | Four‑year high export volume |
| Ukraine export delays | Supply tightening | Declining market share in EU |
| Yield shortfall | Price pressure | Double‑digit loss in futures |
| USDA crop forecast revision | Supply outlook | 2025/26 crop cut by 0.35 million tons |
| Global production decline | Supply‑demand balance | 1,286.23 million tons worldwide |
The corn market remains sensitive to changes in global supply forecasts and export dynamics. Traders should monitor forthcoming USDA reports and Ukrainian export updates, as these are likely to be the primary drivers of price movements in the coming weeks.
