Recent Developments in the US Dollar / Brazil Real Exchange Rate

Market Snapshot

  • Close price (2026‑01‑28): BRL 5.1971 per USD.
  • 52‑week high: BRL 6.1782 (2025‑03‑03).
  • 52‑week low: BRL 5.169 (2026‑01‑28).

Impact of the Federal Reserve Decision

On 28 January 2026 the U.S. Federal Reserve left its benchmark interest rate unchanged. The announcement was accompanied by statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who reiterated the United States’ preference for a strong dollar.

  • Market reaction: The US dollar weakened sharply during the session, touching a low of BRL 5.1716, the lowest level since May 2024.
  • Close: The currency finished at BRL 5.206, a slight appreciation relative to the intraday trough.
  • Correlation with DXY: Analysts noted that the BRL /USD movement mirrored the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which climbed 0.70 % to 96.42 points after Bessent’s remarks.
  • Interpretation: The statement from the Treasury Secretary helped stabilize the dollar and prevented a deeper depreciation against the real.

Technical Considerations

  • The 52‑week low of BRL 5.169 represents a key support level for the pair.
  • The recent close at BRL 5.1971 is positioned 0.028 % above that floor, suggesting limited downside risk in the short term.
  • Traders should monitor the 5.20‑level for potential resistance, as it has acted as a psychological barrier in past sessions.

Brazil’s ETF Ecosystem and Market Implications

On 29 January 2026, the inaugural DEX ETF Summit was announced, to be held at B3 (Brasil Bolsa Balcão) on 4 February. The summit aims to accelerate the development of a modern, domestic ETF marketplace tailored to Brazilian investors and advisors.

  • Participants: Asset managers, banks, regulators, index providers and other market intermediaries.
  • Strategic objective: Build a next‑generation ETF ecosystem that can enhance liquidity, diversify investment options, and attract both domestic and foreign capital.
  • Potential impact on the BRL: A more developed ETF market could increase demand for the real by attracting foreign portfolio inflows, thereby supporting the currency. Additionally, increased domestic participation may reduce the need for foreign borrowing denominated in dollars, potentially easing pressure on the exchange rate.

Outlook

  • U.S. monetary policy: The Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates unchanged, coupled with supportive rhetoric from Treasury officials, is likely to keep the dollar relatively stable in the near term.
  • Brazilian monetary stance: Anticipated decisions by the Brazilian Central Bank, as referenced in forecast reports, will be a key factor for the pair’s direction. A tightening stance in Brazil could strengthen the real, whereas dovish moves might support the dollar.
  • Market sentiment: The convergence of a stable dollar, a solid technical support level for the BRL, and the upcoming ETF summit suggests a cautiously neutral outlook. Traders should remain alert to policy announcements from both central banks and developments related to Brazil’s ETF framework.

The information presented reflects the latest available data and market commentary up to 29 January 2026.