Soybean Market Update – 15 November 2025

Market Context The CME soybean contract closed at $1,150.50 on 12 November 2025, falling slightly below the 52‑week high of $1,147 and remaining well above the 52‑week low of $945.25 recorded on 18 December 2024.

Key Drivers

  • USDA Report on China’s Purchasing Intentions – On 15 November the U.S. Department of Agriculture released data that casts doubt on the Chinese government’s earlier claims of committing to large volumes of U.S. soybean imports. The report, highlighted by several news outlets (KOB, Barchart, AP, MarketScreener, Tridge), indicates that China’s actual purchase plans may fall short of the figures touted by the Trump administration a month earlier.
  • China’s Stockpile Situation – An analysis from UKRAGROCONSULT on 14 November notes that Chinese soybean inventories are swelling after months of record imports. The increased stockpile, combined with limited purchasing capacity, reduces the likelihood of significant new U.S. shipments.
  • Brazilian Export Outlook – The ANEC revision (13 November) raises Brazil’s November soybean export forecast to 4.26 million tonnes, a substantial increase from the prior estimate of 3.77 million tonnes. The surge in Brazilian supply further pressures U.S. soybean pricing and export prospects.

Market Reaction

  • On 14 November, Chicago soybean futures rose as traders positioned ahead of the USDA data release, but gains were capped by the lack of strong Chinese demand.
  • Following the USDA announcement, soybean prices in Ukraine increased by UAH 900 per ton (APK‑Inform, 14 November).
  • In the United States, the USDA lowered the overall soybean export outlook on 14 November after China declined to absorb more U.S. shipments.

Implications for U.S. Farmers

  • The potential slowdown in Chinese purchases, coupled with higher Brazilian export volumes, suggests that U.S. farmers may face tighter market share against foreign competitors.
  • The recent trade truce with China has not translated into the expected rebound in U.S. soybean demand, as reported by Morningstar and GCaptain.

Conclusion The combination of an uncertain Chinese import commitment, expanding Chinese inventories, and a stronger Brazilian export forecast is exerting downward pressure on U.S. soybean prices and export volumes. Market participants should monitor forthcoming USDA data and Chinese policy statements closely to assess the trajectory of U.S. soybean demand in the coming months.