USD/CHF Analysis – 26 January 2026
Market Overview
On Monday, 26 January 2026, the USD/CHF pair fell below the 0.7800 level, reaching a low of approximately 0.7760. This decline represents the weakest dollar‑against‑franc level observed since September 2011. The pair subsequently began to rebound toward 0.7800 during the Asian trading session, reflecting a partial recovery of the dollar after earlier intraday losses.
Key Drivers
| Driver | Details |
|---|---|
| Risk‑Aversion | Heightened global risk sentiment has driven investors toward the Swiss franc, which is perceived as a safe‑haven currency. The rally has been reinforced by comments from Goldman Sachs and other analysts highlighting the franc’s defensive attributes. |
| Fed Outlook | Expectations of potential changes to U.S. monetary policy—particularly the possibility of rate cuts or a pause in rate hikes—have weakened the dollar. Market participants are awaiting further guidance from the Federal Reserve regarding future policy stances. |
| Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy | The trade‑weighted Swiss franc has approached a new all‑time high, prompting speculation that the SNB could reconsider negative interest rates if the upward trend continues. Analysts point to the 0.7800/7810 resistance zone as a key technical level that could signal a shift in SNB policy considerations. |
| Intervention Rumors | Speculation that the New York Fed may conduct rate checks on the USD/JPY pair, coupled with reports of suspected Japanese intervention, has added to the dollar’s weakness. These interventions are perceived to support the yen at the expense of the dollar. |
| Geopolitical and Commodity Pressures | Recent statements by President Trump regarding a potential “massive armada” heading to Iran and rebound in oil prices have contributed to a broader risk‑off sentiment. Precious‑metal prices have reached new peaks, further encouraging safe‑haven flows into the franc. |
Technical Analysis
- Support Levels: The pair found support at around 0.7760, aligning with the 52‑week low of 0.7744 recorded on 24 January 2026.
- Resistance Levels: Key resistance is observed at 0.7800–0.7810. A sustained breakout above this zone could indicate a reversal in the franc’s rally and a potential rebound of the dollar.
- Trend: The USD/CHF has moved from a 52‑week low to near 0.78, suggesting a temporary overextension of the franc’s upward trajectory.
Fundamental Context
- Current Close (2026‑01‑24): 0.7783
- 52‑Week High (2025‑02‑02): 0.9195
- 52‑Week Low (2026‑01‑24): 0.7744
These figures illustrate that while the franc has strengthened significantly, it remains well below its historical peak.
Outlook
The USD/CHF pair is likely to remain under pressure as risk‑averse sentiment persists. However, any sign of a reversal in SNB policy or clearer guidance from the Federal Reserve regarding U.S. interest‑rate policy could prompt a reassessment of the dollar’s position. Traders should monitor the 0.7800 resistance zone and any developments related to U.S. monetary policy and geopolitical events that could influence risk sentiment.
