Waga Energy’s Bold Leap into the U.S. RNG Market
Waga Energy SA, the French specialist in landfill‑gas conversion, has announced a high‑profile contract in the United States that could reshape the company’s growth trajectory and investor outlook. On 18 December 2025, Wicomico County in Maryland selected Waga Energy to build, own, operate, and maintain a renewable natural gas (RNG) production facility at the Newland Park Landfill in Salisbury. The project will upgrade landfill gas to pipeline‑quality RNG using the company’s patented WAGABOX technology, producing more than 210 000 MMBtu (≈62 GWh) annually.
The contract is more than a mere expansion into the U.S. market; it signals a strategic pivot toward large‑scale RNG generation, a sector that has seen explosive growth as governments tighten emissions targets. Waga Energy will process up to 1 000 standard cubic feet per minute of landfill gas—a substantial capacity that positions the firm as a serious competitor to established RNG developers. The deal also aligns with global decarbonisation narratives, giving Waga Energy a foothold in a country that is actively subsidising clean‑gas projects.
A Counter‑Narrative to the Company’s Troubling Valuation
Despite this promising development, the company’s financial fundamentals remain unsettling. As of 16 December 2025, the stock traded at €21.85, comfortably below its 52‑week low of €8.01 but still languishing far from its 52‑week high of €23.05. The market cap hovers at roughly €583 million, while the price‑to‑earnings ratio sits at a negative ‑26.746—an indicator that the company is not yet generating sustainable earnings. Waga Energy’s negative P/E is a stark reminder that revenue growth has not yet translated into profitability.
The recent contract, while strategically valuable, is unlikely to deliver immediate earnings. The capital intensity of RNG projects and the time lag between construction and revenue generation mean that the deal will only begin to pay dividends to shareholders after a few years. In the interim, investors will still be staring at a company that has yet to post positive earnings per share and whose stock price is vulnerable to market sentiment swings.
The Equity Offer: A Potential Exit for EQT
Compounding the valuation dilemma is the announcement of a mandatory simplified cash tender offer by EQT, a private‑equity firm that holds a significant stake in Waga Energy. On 15 December 2025, EQT announced that it would make a cash offer for all remaining shares in the company. The tender offer, whose terms are not yet disclosed, could represent a forced exit for existing shareholders and a signal that EQT believes the market undervalues Waga Energy’s long‑term prospects.
A cash tender at an undisclosed price may appear generous, yet it also signals that EQT’s confidence in the company’s future cash flows is limited. If the offer price is set below the current market price, shareholders could be forced to accept a discounted exit. Conversely, if the offer is substantially above market value, it might indicate that EQT believes the company’s growth potential is currently eclipsed by market sentiment—a double‑edged sword for investors.
Market Reactions and the Path Forward
The combination of a landmark RNG contract and a pending equity tender is a paradox. On one hand, the U.S. deal demonstrates that Waga Energy possesses a viable technology and can secure sizeable contracts in a competitive market. On the other, the negative P/E and pending cash tender suggest that the market remains skeptical of the company’s ability to monetize its technology quickly and efficiently.
Short‑term trading will likely be dominated by speculation on the tender offer’s terms and the profitability timeline of the Maryland project. Long‑term investors should weigh the company’s strategic positioning against its current lack of earnings and the potential dilution of ownership through EQT’s exit strategy.
In conclusion, Waga Energy’s recent U.S. contract offers a tantalising glimpse of growth, yet the company’s financial health and upcoming equity offer cast doubt on whether the market will reward this progress. Investors should remain vigilant, demanding clarity on the tender offer’s price and a realistic roadmap for turning RNG production into sustainable earnings.
