Market Overview
The Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen (AUD/JPY) cross has continued to oscillate within a narrow band around the 102‑level, reflecting heightened sensitivity to developments in Japan’s monetary policy and fiscal stance. As of 20 November 2025, spot prices were trading near 101.50, slightly below the 52‑week high of 102.461 recorded on 19 November and close to the 52‑week low of 86.176 noted in April.
Recent Price Action
- 20 Nov 2025: AUD/JPY rose to a yearly high of 102.10 during the Asian session, driven by expectations of a significant stimulus package under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
- 21 Nov 2025 (morning): The pair fell back to the 101.30‑101.25 range, marking a retreat from the one‑year peak reached the day before.
- 21 Nov 2025 (later): A second consecutive day of lower trading was observed, as the Yen strengthened slightly against the Australian Dollar.
The move towards 102.10 was supported by a Reuters poll indicating that 53 % of economists expect the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise rates to 0.75 % at its December meeting. BoJ board member Junko Koeda’s remarks on policy direction added further weight to this view.
Influencing Factors
| Factor | Impact on AUD/JPY |
|---|---|
| Japanese inflation | Remains above BoJ’s 2 % target, sustaining expectations of a near‑term rate hike and supporting the Yen. |
| Fiscal stimulus | The ¥21.3 trillion economic stimulus plan approved by the cabinet raises concerns about Japan’s fiscal position, creating a “Sell Japan” sentiment among traders. |
| Finance Minister comments | Statements by Satsuki Katayama suggesting potential intervention to curb Yen weakness reinforce safe‑haven demand for the currency. |
| Market sentiment | Weak equity market tone and heightened risk aversion favour the Yen against the riskier Australian Dollar. |
Liquidity and Trading Environment
The AUD/JPY pair remains highly liquid during Asian hours, with a 24‑hour trading cycle that allows participants to react to policy announcements and economic data releases in real time. Leverage options available on major platforms, such as the multi‑asset broker XS.com, enable both seasoned traders and newcomers to position themselves in the cross with low entry barriers.
Technical Assessment
- Support levels: 101.00 – 100.50, reflecting recent retracements.
- Resistance levels: 102.50 – 103.00, near the 52‑week high.
- Trend direction: The pair has shown a short‑term downtrend following the 102.10 peak, with potential for a consolidation near the 101.25–101.50 area before a renewed move toward 102.50.
Outlook
Given the current macro‑economic backdrop—sticky inflation, forthcoming fiscal stimulus, and expectations of a BoJ rate hike—traders should monitor the AUD/JPY pair for further Yen appreciation. The risk‑off environment and speculative sentiment around Japan’s fiscal health are likely to continue supporting the Yen in the near term, while the Australian Dollar may face downward pressure as long as market participants remain sensitive to these developments.
