Wheat Market Outlook – 20 October 2025

The wheat futures market displayed a muted performance on Monday, with major contracts hovering near their 52‑week low of $139. A combination of global supply dynamics, regional production updates, and policy actions across key wheat‑producing economies shapes the current trajectory.

Global Supply Headwinds

Paris wheat futures fell sharply, as reported by Marketscreener. The decline reflects the persistence of a large world supply base that continues to outpace demand growth. This oversupply environment has pressured prices across all maturities, pushing front‑month contracts down by 1‑2 cents relative to the previous close. The CBOT‑based soft red wheat futures, in particular, lagged by a similar margin, underscoring a broader trend of softness in the U.S. and European wheat complexes.

Market Sentiment and Trading Activity

  • Chicago Grain Report: The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) complex recorded higher trade across the front months, with soft red wheat futures up 1‑2 cents and hard red winter (HRW) contracts moving up 1‑2 ¼ cents. This uptick is partly attributable to a brief attempt to establish a support level on the lower end of the 5‑year range.
  • Weekend Buying: Nasdaq noted increased buying pressure into the weekend, with December contracts trading 5 ¼ cents above the green. This activity suggests that traders are seeking to capture a potential rebound after the week’s consolidation.

Despite these micro‑fluctuations, the overall market sentiment remains neutral. The Marketscreener report on Monday morning confirmed that wheat prices were “sticking close to unchanged” in the early AM trade, a pattern that is consistent with the broader trend of price stagnation.

Regional Production Developments

Australia

An early‑season Reuters poll, reported by Marketscreener, indicated that the Australian harvest outlook has improved. Analysts cited better‑than‑expected yields in western cropping regions, leading to a revised production estimate upward. While this development is positive for Australian exports, the impact on global prices is likely to be modest given the relatively small share of Australia’s output in the global supply chain.

Argentina

According to Biofuels Digest, Argentina is positioned for a record wheat harvest in the 2025/26 cycle. The country’s expansion of planting acreage and favorable weather conditions are expected to boost export supply, reinforcing the downward pressure on prices.

Pakistan

In Pakistan, the government’s wheat policy for 2025–26 has introduced a procurement price of Rs 3,500 per maund. The policy aims to secure around 6.2 million tonnes for strategic reserves. Simultaneously, provincial incentives are encouraging farmers—particularly in rain‑fed regions—to maximize wheat cultivation, as highlighted in multiple local news outlets (Daily Times, Tribune, UrduPoint). These actions are likely to increase domestic supply, potentially leading to a short‑term dip in export demand.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported a rise in grain export inspections on Monday (Marketscreener). Wheat inspections increased to 1.47 million metric tons for the week ending 16 October, up from 1.02 million in the preceding week. This uptick reflects stronger export demand amid a tighter supply environment, suggesting that U.S. wheat producers may benefit from higher export volumes even as domestic prices remain subdued.

Price Levels and Technical Context

  • Current Close: $491.5 (CME, 16 October)
  • 52‑Week High: $630.5 (18 February)
  • 52‑Week Low: $139 (3 July)

The price action remains well below the 52‑week high, indicating a prolonged adjustment phase. Technical indicators point to a support zone around $200—a level that, if breached, could signal a sharper decline towards the 5‑year low. Conversely, a rebound above $350 would suggest a potential resumption of upward momentum, albeit with caution given the prevailing supply surplus.

Forward Outlook

  • Supply: The combination of improved Australian and Argentine outputs, coupled with Pakistan’s expanded cultivation, is expected to keep global supplies in excess of demand through the first half of 2026.
  • Demand: Demand growth is likely to lag, driven by weaker consumption in the Euro‑Asian region where large inventories persist.
  • Price Action: Prices are projected to remain within the $150–$250 corridor for the next 3–6 months, with occasional spikes linked to export‑related events or significant policy shifts.

In sum, wheat markets are navigating a complex landscape of supply excess, modest demand growth, and policy‑driven export dynamics. Traders should monitor the interaction between global production trends and regional policy measures to gauge future price movements.