Wheat Market Outlook – 28 October 2025

The wheat contract on the CME settled at $514.25 per bushel, a level that sits comfortably between the 52‑week low of $139 (3 July 2025) and the 52‑week high of $630.50 (18 February 2025). Recent trading activity and geopolitical developments suggest a modest upside trajectory for the coming weeks, driven largely by inventory dynamics, trade policy signals, and regional production updates.

1. Inventory Visibility and Domestic Supply Signals

A meeting chaired by Dr. Kiran Khurshid, Secretary of Price Control and Commodities Management, reviewed Punjab’s wheat reserves and gunny‑bag stocks. Although the press release truncates the specifics, the fact that a high‑ranking official convened a dedicated session signals heightened scrutiny of domestic supply chains. Punjab remains a key grain state; any tightening of storage or distribution constraints could tighten the supply curve on the U.S. markets, reinforcing upward price pressure.

2. Regional Production Momentum

Zimbabwe’s latest production record, as reported by the Herald, confirms the country’s status as one of only two African nations that can achieve wheat self‑sufficiency. While Zimbabwe’s output is modest on a global scale, the achievement underscores a broader trend in sub‑Saharan agriculture that could translate into increased long‑term supply diversity. This development is unlikely to impact CME prices immediately but adds to the backdrop of a more resilient global supply base.

3. International Trade Dynamics

  • Ukrainian Market Support: Ukragroconsult notes that wheat prices on U.S. exchanges rose last week on expectations of a U.S.–China trade agreement. The agreement’s potential to open new export channels for Ukrainian wheat is likely to sustain higher purchase prices in the region, indirectly supporting global benchmarks.
  • Russian Export Outlook: Analyst commentary on the Marketscreener site indicates little change in Russian wheat export volumes, but there is a cautious upward revision of export estimates for October. Meanwhile, the APK Inform report that the export duty on Russian wheat has started to rise introduces a cost element that may depress Russian exports, creating a supply gap that could lift global prices.
  • Jordan Tender Activity: Jordan’s 120,000‑ton wheat tender, now with two bidders, signals a continued appetite for imported wheat in the Middle East. Although the tender is relatively small compared to global volumes, its timing and price expectations will be closely watched as a barometer for regional demand trends.

4. Market Sentiment and Technical Moves

  • Price Momentum: Barchart reports a “Wheat Gains Pushing to Tuesday AM Trade” and notes that the contract closed higher on Monday, following a broader grain rally. The market’s recent gains are underpinned by a technical breakout from key resistance levels that were previously held at the $520 per bushel mark.
  • Commodity Interplay: Chicago soybeans have rallied near a four‑month high, buoyed by optimism over China’s potential soybean purchases, while wheat and corn have retraced slightly. This inter‑commodity relationship suggests that while soybean demand is strengthening, wheat demand remains robust enough to maintain its upward trajectory despite temporary retracement.

5. Macro‑Economic Context

  • U.S. Trade Agreements: The TheDailyStar highlights that Bangladesh’s higher imports of U.S. wheat—despite cheaper Russian options—are a consequence of a binding U.S. trade agreement. The commitment to protect U.S. export markets indicates sustained demand from developing economies, reinforcing long‑term price support.
  • Currency and Pricing: Wheat is priced in USD; any significant devaluation of the dollar could make U.S. wheat relatively cheaper for importers in emerging markets, potentially increasing demand. Conversely, a stronger dollar could dampen import volumes. Market participants will monitor dollar index movements closely.

6. Forward‑Looking Assessment

  • Short‑Term: The confluence of a modest uptick in U.S. prices, rising Russian export duties, and ongoing demand from the Middle East and Africa suggests that wheat could test the upper boundary of its 52‑week high range in the near term. A break above $630.50 would confirm a bullish reversal that could be sustained for several weeks.
  • Medium‑Term: As the U.S.–China trade agreement crystallizes, Ukrainian and Russian wheat supply dynamics will play a decisive role. A successful agreement could open new export corridors, increasing global supply and potentially tempering price gains.
  • Long‑Term: Continued improvements in African wheat production, coupled with stable U.S. demand and potential policy shifts in major importing countries, will shape the long‑term equilibrium. Should supply constraints persist in key producing regions, wheat will maintain a price premium relative to competing cereals.

In conclusion, the market environment remains tilted in favor of wheat price appreciation. Key catalysts—trade policy outcomes, regional supply updates, and inventory developments—are poised to keep the contract on an upward trajectory, barring any unforeseen geopolitical disruptions or severe climatic events. Traders and portfolio managers should therefore monitor the U.S.–China trade negotiations, Russian export duty adjustments, and regional tender activities to capture the next wave of price movement.