Why Corn Futures Are Rising: Export Surge, Ukraine Shocks & Korean Demand

Corn Futures Surge Amid Export‑Driven Demand and Geopolitical Shocks

The CME corn contract has surged to $436.75 per bushel on 17 November 2025, a level that sits comfortably below the 52‑week high of $504.5 but far above the recent low of $368.75. Traders are riding a wave of optimism that is fuelled by a confluence of factors that, when stacked together, paint a clear picture of why corn is reclaiming its place at the top of the market.

1. Export Momentum Reaching a Four‑Year Peak

On 17 November, the futures market recorded a four‑year high in export volumes. This surge is not an isolated phenomenon; the same day, brokers reported that U.S. corn exports were on the back of a renewed global appetite. The CME’s own data corroborates this, with corn futures moving higher while soybean futures reversed after a new high, underscoring corn’s resilience in the face of broader commodity volatility.

2. Ukraine’s Market Dynamics: A Double‑Edged Sword

Ukraine’s role in the global corn supply chain remains pivotal. Despite the declining share of the EU market—a consequence of export delays—the country’s port prices have climbed by $2–$3 to the $210–$211/mt range in the week of 7–14 November. This price uplift is a direct response to railway bottlenecks that have forced exporters to shift to road transport, driving up logistics costs and, consequently, the final price. Meanwhile, the EU share of Ukrainian corn exports is falling, with Italy, Spain, and the Netherlands emerging as the largest importers. The shift in trade routes, though costly, has injected a short‑term price premium that feeds into futures pricing.

3. South Korea’s Strategic Procurement

South Korea’s KFA tender for up to 69,000 tons of corn further cements the crop’s demand side. Such procurement moves are a signal that major importers are looking to secure supply ahead of the upcoming planting season, creating a bullish backdrop for corn futures. When a major economy signals intent to purchase, the market interprets it as a tacit endorsement of the crop’s price trajectory.

4. Seasonal Supply Concerns and Crop Outlook

The USDA’s latest forecasts have trimmed its projection for U.S. corn exports from the 2025/26 crop by 0.35 million tons. Although the overall world corn production is projected at 1,286.23 million tons, the modest increase in global exports (203.47 million tons) indicates that supply will not outpace demand in the near term. Moreover, the one‑week low in soybeans and the downward pressure on corn from a weak U.S. crop outlook suggest that the corn market is poised for a corrective rally rather than a sustained decline.

5. Technical Confirmation: A Strong Rally

On 18 November, a series of intra‑day reports from barchart.com underscored a sustained intraday rally. From early morning to the close, corn futures repeatedly outperformed benchmarks, with the “Corn Continues Strength on Tuesday AM Trade” narrative confirming that traders were not merely reacting to a one‑off catalyst but were confident in a broader structural shift. The repeated headlines—“Corn Holds Higher on Tuesday,” “Corn Holding Gains at Midday,” and “How Much Higher Can Corn Prices Go?"—signal that market participants are actively debating the upper limits of price appreciation, a classic sign of a bullish trend.

Bottom Line

Corn futures are on an unmistakable uptrend driven by:

For traders, the key takeaway is clear: corn is in the midst of a robust, multi‑faceted rally that is unlikely to be interrupted by short‑term supply shocks or geopolitical jitters. The convergence of supply constraints, strategic demand from major economies, and bullish technical signals creates a compelling case for continued upside. Those who sit on the sidelines risk missing out on the next leg of the rally.