The USD/KRW Pair: A Surge Amidst Korean Resilience and Global Uncertainties

The Korean won, quoted at 1470.68 KRW to the US dollar as of 5 Feb 2026, has broken through its 52‑week low of 1322.42 and sits close to the 2025‑high of 1486.9. This technical backdrop signals a renewed strength for the KRW, but the currency’s recent volatility has been shaped by a confluence of domestic catalysts and external pressures.

1. Domestic Momentum: AI‑Driven Demand and the MLCC Boom

Korea’s semiconductor ecosystem, the lifeblood of the won’s stability, has entered a new growth phase. According to a 9 Feb 2026 report on stock.eastmoney.com, the price of multi‑layer ceramic capacitors (MLCCs) — critical components for AI hardware — has risen by nearly 20 % in the last month. This surge, driven by AI‑fuelled demand, has lifted Korean conglomerates such as Samsung Electro‑Mechanics and Futura High‑Tech to record highs on the Korean Stock Exchange. The upward pressure on export earnings translates directly into a stronger won, as foreign buyers purchase more KRW to fund their imports of high‑value electronics.

2. Policy Signals from the Bank of Korea

The Bank of Korea’s (BoK) chief‑in‑waiting, Lee Seung‑heon, publicly stated that the market is “too early for tightening” and that the USD/KRW range is broadly appropriate. Lee’s comments underscore the BoK’s intent to maintain accommodative monetary conditions amid a global shift toward tightening. In an environment where the US Federal Reserve has signaled a hawkish stance, BoK’s dovish tone reassures investors that the won will not be subjected to sudden devaluation, thereby bolstering its position against the dollar.

3. A Crypto Misstep That Tested Market Confidence

On 8 Feb 2026, Bithumb, Korea’s second‑largest cryptocurrency exchange, mistakenly distributed 620 000 bitcoins in an online reward campaign. While the error was largely corrected within 35 minutes, the incident triggered a temporary dip of nearly 18 % in Bithumb’s bitcoin trading volume. The episode heightened concerns about regulatory oversight in Korea’s nascent crypto sector, potentially dampening foreign inflows. Nevertheless, the won’s resilience proved sufficient to absorb the shock, as the KRW/US dollar pair did not experience a sustained break below its 52‑week low.

4. External Geopolitical Pressures

Japanese political developments, notably the landslide victory of Premier Sanae Takaichi’s LDP party, have bolstered regional market sentiment. A robust Tokyo market indirectly supports the won, as investors perceive South Korea as a stable counter‑balance to Japan’s domestic uncertainties. However, the US dollar remains the global benchmark, and any shift in US policy or economic data could reverse the won’s gains.

5. Outlook and Risks

  • Support: The won’s current level of 1470.68 is comfortably above the 52‑week low, and the continued rise of high‑tech exports provides a solid economic base.
  • Resistance: A sharp rebound in US interest rates or a resurgence of geopolitical tensions could pressure the KRW, pushing the pair back toward the 1486.9 high.
  • Catalysts: Positive earnings reports from Korean semiconductor firms, sustained AI demand, and BoK’s continued accommodative stance will likely keep the KRW buoyant. Conversely, any regulatory clampdown on crypto or a downturn in global tech demand could undermine this trajectory.

In summary, the USD/KRW pair remains a barometer of Korea’s economic vigor and its strategic positioning amid a tightening global monetary climate. While domestic fundamentals continue to support the won, traders must remain vigilant to external shocks that could swiftly alter the currency’s direction.