Zeta Global Holdings Corp. Pushes Revenue and Profit Targets Higher After Marigold Acquisition

Zeta Global Holdings Corp. (NYSE: ZETA) has dramatically revised its 2025 and 2026 guidance upward, a move that signals both confidence in its growth engine and a strategic gamble on the Marigold acquisition. The company disclosed new figures for the fourth quarter of 2025 and the full year, as well as updated expectations for 2026, in a press release published on 24 November 2025.

Revenue Outlook Surges

  • 2025 Q4: Revenue excluding Marigold and LiveIntent is projected at $340.5 million, up 23 % year‑over‑year. Total revenue, incorporating Marigold and a nascent political‑candidate segment, is forecast at $380.3 million, a 21 % increase.
  • Full‑year 2025: The company now expects $1,190.4 million in revenue without Marigold/LiveIntent, a 26 % jump YoY, and $1,290.4 million total, a 28 % rise.
  • 2026 projections are even more aggressive: Q1 revenue excluding Marigold and political candidates is slated at $314.5 million (+20 %), while total revenue could reach $1,730.0 million, a 34 % increase. The company also anticipates that Marigold alone could contribute $47.5 million in 2026.

These figures reflect the company’s belief that the Marigold platform will integrate seamlessly and deliver immediate revenue streams, a claim that will be scrutinized by investors given the complexities of merging distinct cloud ecosystems.

Profitability and Cash Flow Projections

  • Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 is forecast at $91.1 million (a 29 % YoY lift), while the margin is expected to fall to 24.0 % from the previous year’s 21.3 %. For the full year, EBITDA is projected at $274.7 million (+42 %) with a margin of 21.3 %.
  • For 2026, the company expects $385.4 million in adjusted EBITDA (+40 %) and a margin of 22.3 %, though a loss of $110 basis points in BPS is projected for the first quarter.
  • Free cash flow is projected to climb to $157.4 million in Q4 2025 (+70 %) and $224.0 million in Q1 2026, representing a 12.9 % margin in the latter period.

The shift in cash‑flow dynamics is notable: the company’s free‑cash‑flow margin is expected to decline slightly from 12.8 % to 12.2 % in 2025, yet it will rebound in 2026 as the Marigold and political‑candidate revenues mature.

Market Reaction and Analyst Sentiment

William Blair’s analyst Arjun Bhatia reiterated an Outperform rating for Zeta Global, underscoring the broker’s confidence in the company’s strategic direction. However, the analyst’s commentary—available only behind a paywall—suggests that the valuation premium attached to Zeta’s shares may be “premature” given the company’s negative P/E ratio of –158.27 and the volatility that accompanies large‑scale acquisitions.

Broader Context

Zeta Global’s core competency lies in providing an omnichannel, data‑driven cloud platform that empowers enterprises to analyze consumer behavior at scale. With a market cap of roughly $4.2 billion and a 52‑week high of $27.79 versus a low of $10.69, the stock has experienced significant swings in the past year. Its most recent price of $17.48 (23 November 2025) sits comfortably between these extremes but remains far below the high seen in late 2024.

The company’s ambition to capture political‑candidate marketing, a nascent yet potentially lucrative niche, signals a diversification strategy that could either broaden its revenue base or dilute focus on its core consumer‑intelligence platform. Investors will be watching closely how the Marigold acquisition impacts both revenue and operational margins in the coming quarters.

In sum, Zeta Global’s upward revision of guidance post‑Marigold acquisition presents a bold claim of accelerated growth and improved profitability. Whether the market rewards this optimism or punishes the company for over‑ambitious projections remains to be seen, but the firm has laid out a clear roadmap that places the acquisition at the center of its future financial performance.